【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月美国航空军工行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根大通
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：65
        【目录或简介】：
Aircraft production rates moving up. We have revised our delivery
forecasts to account for the rate increases Boeing and Airbus have announced
as well as an expected ~10% increase in the 737 rate. We now show virtually
no cyclical downturn, with deliveries remaining in the 1,000-1,200 range
through 2014. The delay of 787 deliveries, large backlogs, and modest
production increases during the last upturn have moderated the cycle, and
high oil prices and attractive financing from export credit agencies are
supporting new aircraft demand. We are cautiously optimistic but still wary of
downside risk given the weak state of the leasing/secondary aircraft market.
• 787 progressing. Boeing has racked up nearly 400 hours of flight testing of
3,100 required and recently completed the ultimate-load wing test as well as
basic flutter and ground effects tests. The aircraft should be approaching Type
Inspection Authorization (TIA), when the FAA will join Boeing pilots on the
aircraft. Boeing is still preparing the two test aircraft with GE engines for
their first flights this spring. We estimate that Boeing has eaten up half the
margin in the schedule (~6 weeks), placing first delivery in November.
• Awaiting KC-X tanker bid decision. EADS will soon decide whether to bid
on the Air Force aerial refueling tanker contract. This demonstrates a shorter
timeframe than the company’s previously requested deadline extension for 90
days to prepare a bid.
• April earnings season approaching. On the commercial aero side, all eyes
will be on aftermarket comps and signs of a recovery as global flight activity
slowly improves. We do not expect many surprises on the defense side, as we
are still probably too early in the year to expect much change in the outlook.
One of the potential emerging themes for which we will be looking for
evidence is increased share repurchase activity and slightly more aggressive
balance sheet management.
Investment Thesis
Commercial Aerospace
We believe commercial aerospace stocks have substantial appreciation potential over the
next few years. Commercial air traffic should grow in excess of GDP, as it has
consistently for decades, once the global economy recovers. In turn, this should drive a
rebound in the aftermarket in 2010. New aircraft demand is still holding up relatively
well, and it looks as though Boeing and Airbus will be able to avoid major production
cuts.
While aftermarket demand remains moribund, we see a bottom approaching after a very
difficult 2009. The huge disconnect between airline capacity and demand for aftermarket
services and spares should close, and capacity has started to grow again. We do not
anticipate a sharp snapback with global airline profits still under pressure, but leading
indicators do point to better times ahead. We see commercial aircraft deliveries
remaining in a range around 1,050-1,150 thanks to large backlogs, modest increases
during the last upturn and ramping 787 deliveries. 787 execution looks like the most
important issue in the industry right now, and we see risk associated with flight testing
and certification, and airlines may not be entirely happy with the end product, but the
toughest days on this program are likely behind it. Regional jets face more cuts this year
as backlogs look severely depleted, and beyond that the landscape is shifting with
several new aircraft scheduled to enter production in the next four years. The worst of
the business jet downcycle appears to be over, but we believe it will be a long road back.
We see the cycle bottoming in 2010 at a level 48% off the 2008 peak, and while demand
has held up far better for large cabin aircraft than for small cabin, we are not yet ready to
call a large cabin bottom.
Rockwell Collins (COL) is our top commercial aerospace pick. While more than half of
its earnings come from defense today, we believe this is because COL’s commercial
aerospace earnings are easily the most depressed in our universe in 2010. COL should
generate robust earnings growth out of the downturn, driven by high incremental
margins in its commercial business, and we believe this stock could garner the most
multiple expansion among mid-large cap aerospace stocks once the group comes back
into favor. We see the stock getting into the $80-90 range by mid-2012, with potential
beyond that if the defense business does better than the flat EBIT we have assumed from
FY09-FY13. Another of our top selections is United Technologies (UTX). The company
should benefit from a large restructuring tailwind, a rebound at its short-cycle
businesses, structural margin improvement at both Carrier and Fire & Security, and
accretion from the deployment of its strong free cash flow. We think the stock could
reach $90 or more by mid-2011 if the margin improvement comes through and capital is
well deployed.
Defense
The defense budget outlook over the next several years is not good, and while the stocks
largely reflect this, we believe that multiple expansion will be difficult to come by on a
sustainable basis. We do believe the stocks could perform well in the first half of 2010,
as there may be some reversion to the mean following a lagging performance in 2009,
earnings should be good for the next several quarters, and the FY11 budget was in line
with expectations. However, we see the budget as living on borrowed time due to the
massive $1+ trillion structural fiscal deficit, and we see the midterm election this
November as a possible catalyst for budget revision to the downside, as fiscally
conservative Republicans are expected to gain clout.