【名称及出版时间】：高盛高华-美国：投资组合策略-2010年展望：年初选择周期股 年末选择防御股-091205.PDF
【来源】：高盛高华
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：76
【内容提要】：
2010 Outlook: cyclical start; defensive finish...................................................................................3
Investment Recommendations: Our best ideas for 2010 ......................................................................6
The anticipated path of the market in 2010 ......................................................................................................... 8
US economic backdrop for 2010 .........................................................................................................12
Excess capacity: implications for the US equity market ......................................................................15
S&P 500 earnings forecast: $76 per share in 2010 and $90 in 2011 ......................................................................20
Valuation: Our year-end 2010 target for the S&P 500 is 1250 ......................................................................25
Money flow: A bullish back-drop for stock investors in 2010 32
Inter-sector correlations remain elevated but should fall in 2010 ......................................................................36
Strategic Themes and Investment Recommendations ......................................................................39
1. International exposure: Buy our BRICs Sales basket <GSTHBRIC> ......................................................................40
2. Buy S&P 500 companies with operating leverage <GSTHOPHI> ......................................................................44
3. Sector positioning: Pro-cyclical for the near-term...................................................................... 48
4. High Sharpe Ratio trades .........................................................................................................52
5. Uses of Cash: How companies will spend money in 2010.................................................................................. 55
Mutual funds: Strong 1Q relative returns set stage for a strong 2009 ......................................................................64
Hedge funds: regaining lost performance and turning cyclical ......................................................................67
Our 2009 scorecard: Index, Sectors, and Thematic trades ......................................................................69
Appendix A: S&P 500 Market cap & net income by sector since 1974...................................................................... 70
Appendix B: GS Portfolio Strategy Baskets on Bloomberg ......................................................................71
Disclosure ............................................................................................................................................71
Disclosures ............................................................................................................................................ 72
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