【出版时间及名称】：2009年12月日本地产行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：31
        【目录或简介】：
Long-term Mildly Overweight, short-term Market-Weight. TP lowered.
We maintain our mildly Overweight view of the real estate sector for the long
term, but reduce this to Market-Weight for the short term. We have lowered the
target price for the four companies in our coverage. Our investment ratings remain
Buy for Mitsui Fudosan and Mitsubishi Estate and Hold for Sumitomo Realty, and
Tokyu Land.
Deutsche Securities Inc.
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at
http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE
LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Forecast Change
Top picks
Mitsui Fudosan (8801.T),¥1,536 Buy
Mitsubishi Estate (8802.T),¥1,400 Buy
Companies featured
Mitsui Fudosan (8801.T),¥1,536 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (¥) 95 56 67
P/E (x) 19.7 27.6 22.8
EV/EBITDA (x) 15.0 18.2 16.2
Mitsubishi Estate (8802.T),¥1,400 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (¥) 33 40 44
P/E (x) 60.2 35.2 32.1
EV/EBITDA (x) 22.0 16.8 15.9
Sumitomo R&D (8830.T),¥1,553 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (¥) 97 114 115
P/E (x) 18.6 13.6 13.5
EV/EBITDA (x) 15.7 14.9 14.6
Tokyu Land (8815.T),¥322 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (¥) 19 20 23
P/E (x) 23.2 16.1 14.1
EV/EBITDA (x) 14.1 12.2 11.6
Global Markets Research Company
Our short-term Market-Weight view for the sector is based on three factors: (1)
CDS spreads are widening again, and the banks do not look to ease their lending
stance to the sector as soon as hoped. (2) Tokyo Tatemono (8804) has announced
plans for a public offering, and there is concern that others could follow. (3) Condo
sales, though reportedly robust at present, have an uncertain outlook amidst fears
of a deeper downturn in the economy.
Ongoing reduction in assets
In their 2Q FY3/10 results announcement, Mitsubishi Estate and Tokyu Land kept
their full-year forecasts unchanged, saying that they will offset accumulated
valuation losses by higher profits from commercial property sales. Mitsui Fudosan
lowered its forecast, taking higher valuation losses on rental condos. The markets
appear to see this as an effort to reduce asset size by taking valuation losses on
luxury and rental condos, where sales are reportedly sluggish. Some of the firms
say they are laying the groundwork for an investment opportunity, which sounds
positive enough. We suspect, however, that the shares will be impacted more by
fears of continued tightness in the banks’ lending stance due to a lack of any
actual property prospects at present. Rental operations have also been hit by
delayed moves by tenants into empty properties.
Mitsubishi Estate remains top pick
We have revised our earnings forecasts and target prices for the major real estate
firms (see Figure 1, p.2 for details). Mitsubishi Estate remains our top pick. We
basically cannot foresee any improvement in the real estate sector until banks
relax their lending stance. We still feel that office vacancies are reaching their peak,
but the question is just how extensive the subsequent decline will be. Our focus
for now will be office vacancy rates in the new year and condo sales from mid
January.
Valuation and risk
For the five general real estate firms we cover, we use adjusted NAV (NAV
referencing the value of non-leasing businesses) based on our FY3/11 forecasts to
calculate their target prices. We use a cap rate of 5.00-5.75% (previously 4.75-
5.50%, see Figure 1, p.2 for details) based on the expected returns in Otemachi Agrade
buildings according to JREI’s survey of real estate investors as well as cap
rates reported for commercial real estate transactions over the past several
months. Factors that might prompt a switch to a bullish or bearish stance in the
real estate sector include a sudden swing in the economy, a clear downtrend in
Tokyo office vacancies after peaking, and the removal of uncertainties regarding
lending institutions. (Valuations and risk factors for each firm can be found on p. 6-
8.)