在对模型做格兰杰因果检验时,不同滞后阶数对应的结果不同,如下图所示:
滞后阶数为1时
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| Null Hypothesis: | Obs | F-Statistic | Prob. |
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| DLNX does not Granger Cause DLNY | 14 | 2.59204 | 0.1357 |
| DLNY does not Granger Cause DLNX | 9.88016 | 0.0094 |
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滞后阶数为2时
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| Null Hypothesis: | Obs | F-Statistic | Prob. |
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| DLNX does not Granger Cause DLNY | 13 | 0.91521 | 0.4386 |
| DLNY does not Granger Cause DLNX | 3.86467 | 0.0669 |
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滞后阶数为3时
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| Null Hypothesis: | Obs | F-Statistic | Prob. |
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| DLNX does not Granger Cause DLNY | 12 | 0.46821 | 0.7173 |
| DLNY does not Granger Cause DLNX | 12.6704 | 0.0090 |
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滞后阶数为4时
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| Null Hypothesis: | Obs | F-Statistic | Prob. |
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| DLNX does not Granger Cause DLNY | 11 | 24.3024 | 0.0399 |
| DLNY does not Granger Cause DLNX | 3.11691 | 0.2574 |
根据样本容量,最多可以考察滞后期为5,样本容量较小,且由于普遍选择4以内的滞后期,在各准则判断下,选择了滞后期为4.
做了格兰杰因果检验,滞后期为1、3时都显示Y为X的格兰杰原因,滞后期为4时显示X为Y的格兰杰原因,是否能说明说明问题?
我继续做了LM检验,但是滞后期为1-4时都出不来结果,想知道原因为何?望不吝赐教。
Lags LM-Stat Prob
1 NA NA
2 NA NA
3 NA NA
4 NA NA
5 20.72325 0.0004
另外,我是用原序列取对数后一阶差分的数据做的VAR模型,求教一阶差分后的数据代表的经济意义是增长率么?