【出版时间及名称】：2009年12月美国石化设备行业研究报告
        【作者】：瑞士信贷
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：58
        【目录或简介】：

Newbuild order book. We remain cautious on the jackup focused names
in 2010 given meaningful uncontracted supply additions and further
potential pressure on dayrates given increasing rig-on-rig competition.
While 2010 will represent the peak year of additions in the current cycle
(largest number of deliveries since 1982), we are getting more constructive
on the post-2010 supply picture given the likelihood that many rigs in the
tail of the order book may not be completed owing to credit issues and/or
weak newbuild economics. Meanwhile, we expect jackup attrition to
escalate in coming quarters in light of economic considerations and the
advanced age of the fleet at 25 years.
■
Quantifying magnitude of capacity adds. Since the newbuild cycle
began in 2005, 65 jackups have been delivered, boosting overall jackup
supply net of attrition by 15% over this 4-year stretch. Reflecting soft
supply-demand conditions, our analysis indicates that 9 of these are
currently idle. 32 incremental jackups are scheduled to be delivered in 2010,
further boosting jackup supply by 7% from a base of 459 jackups at yearend
2009. Unfortunately, 28 rigs, or 88% of the scheduled newbuild adds in
2010, are uncontracted, which will likely keep pressure on rates given rising
rig-on-rig competition throughout 2010.
■
Supply picture looks better beyond 2010. Supply concerns should ease
after 2010, as there are 14 jackup newbuilds expected to come online in
2011, of which 5 are contracted. In 2012, the newbuild count falls to 9 rigs.
Excluding the 10 rig order in Q309 for Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industry
(ZPMC) by ADHK in non-competitive markets such as Iran and China, only
5 jackups have been ordered since Q408 for competitive markets. We
expect new order activity to remain quiet for several years given tougher
credit conditions and the deterioration in returns using leading-edge rates to
below cost of capital levels (6.1% IRRs assuming newbuild cost of
$185 MM and $100K dayrates).
■
One-third of jackups in order book expected to go to non-competitive
markets. We estimate that 20 of the 60 jackups in the order book could be
destined for non-competitive markets. We believe the bulk of the 13
jackups ordered in 2009 could end up working in non-competitive markets
such as Iran and China, including the 10-rig order placed in July by
Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industry (ZPMC) for jackups. As such, we would
anticipate limited impact to competitive markets from these orders.
Significant delivery risk to at least 10 rigs in order book. We believe
there are 10 newbuilds in the order book that might not be completed owing
to financing issues and/or customer cancellations (i.e. Seadrill’s West Elara
jackup). The bulk of these rigs are concentrated in the tail of the order book.
■
Don’t forget about attrition. We believe one of the factors that could
improve the supply-demand balance long-term is rig attrition given the
mature age of the jackup fleet, as we estimate the average jackup working
offshore is 25 years old. Between 1983 and 2008, the attrition rate was 5.2
rigs per annum. Importantly, the level of attrition tends to be higher in softer
markets. For instance, the level of attrition between 1984 and 1993 was
approximately 10 jackups per annum, including a peak of 16 rigs in 1989.
■
Our take. While we expect the jackup focused stocks to be range bound
during 1H10 as the market digests the elevated level of uncontracted
capacity additions in 2010, we plan to revisit our thesis as we approach the
back half of the year on the expectation that capacity fears will fade.