【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月全球新一代化肥行业研究报告
        【作者】：加拿大丰业银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：430
        【目录或简介】：


Contents
Finding Value in Growth 1
Stock-Specific Investment Highlights 10
Non-Producers 10
Producers 11
Industry-Specific Investment Highlights 12
Potash Demand 12
Potash Supply 12
Supply-Demand Imbalances 12
Long-Term Potash Price Forecast 12
Solution Mining vs. Conventional Mining 12
M&A Highlights 12
Our Top Picks 13
MagIndustries Corp.  1-SO, $1.25 One-Year Target 13
Migao Corporation  1-SO, $10.00 One-Year Target 14
Potash One Inc.  1-SO, $5.25 One-Year Target 15
2010+ Catalysts 16
2010+ Concerns 17
What Potash Price Is Implied by Non-Producer Stocks? 18
We Assume a Long-Term Potash Price of US$500/mt (FOB Vancouver) 18
Stock-Implied Potash Prices 18
Break-Even Potash Price Much Less for Solution Mines 19
NAV Sensitivities to Changes in the Long-Term Potash Price 20
Non-Producer Valuation & Metrics 22
Discount to Potential NAV for Greenfield Potash Developers 22
Firm Versus Project NAV Multiples 23
Potash One’s Legacy Offers Investors the Highest IRR 23
Highest NPV Goes to Legacy as Well 23
NPV per Tonne Ranks Kouilou Last 25
Focus on Capex per mt, Not Absolute Capex 26
Solution Mining Projects Have the Shortest Payback Period 26
Market-Price-Implied and Target-Price-Implied Metrics 27
Other Project and Company Metrics 29
Producer Valuation & Metrics 32
Price-to-Earnings 32
EV/EBITDA 32
Price-to-Book 33
Price-to-Sales 33
What is Potash? 36
The Need for Potash 36
Improved Farmer Economics 37
Global Potash Supply (Abbreviated Version) 38
Saskatchewan, Canada 39
North America (ex. Saskatchewan) 40
Europe & Former Soviet Union 41
Asia 42
Latin America 43
Rest of the World 44
Global Potash Demand 45
Long-Term Demand Drivers 47
By 2050, The Global Population Could Increase by 40%+ Over Today 47
Arable Land per Capita Is Shrinking Fast 48
Global Meat Consumption per Capita Is Increasing… 48
Global GDP Growth Should Get Back on Track by 2011 49
Don’t Forget About Biofuels 50
Mid-Term Demand Drivers 53
Short-Term Demand Drivers 53
Potash Supply & Demand Forecasts 54
Scotia Capital Long-Term Potash Demand Forecast 54
Scotia Capital Long-Term Potash Supply Forecast 55
When Will the World Need More Potash Capacity? 56
Constant Supply Against Demand Scenarios 56
Brownfield Expansion Against Demand Scenarios 57
Will Greenfields Be Invited to the Party? 58
Some Potash Producer Execs Say No 58
We Say Yes 58
Why We Prefer Solution Mining Over Conventional Mining 60
Lower Capex Requirements 60
Quicker Timeline to Production 60
Smaller Environmental Footprint 61
Higher Operating Costs Partially Offset Lower Capex 61
Absence of Flooding Risk 61
Solution vs. Conventional – Sensitivity Analyses 62
Key Findings 62
Attributes of an Ideal Potash Mine Location 71
Infrastructure Availability 71
Energy Security With Low Price Volatility 71
High Political Stability 71
Taxes, Royalties, and Holidays 73
A Stable, Low Inflationary Economy and Low FX Volatility 73
Access to Customers 73
Favourable Depths 74
Risks & Challenges Greenfield Potash Developers Face 76
Title to Properties 76
Resource Quality 76
Regulatory and Permitting Risks 76
Financing 76
Cost Overruns and Timing Setbacks 76
Primarily a Single-Product Producer 77
Potash Price Volatility 77
Competition 77
Foreign Exchange Risk 77
Management 77
Environmental Risk 77
Aboriginal Land Claims 78
Natural Gas 78
Flooding 78
Saskatchewan Potash Tax Reform Implications 79
Highlights 79
Five Merger & Acquisition Thoughts 81
Existing Producers Have a Limited Interest in Acquiring Juniors 81
Greenfield Developers Looking for Financing Should Look to State-Owned Strategic Investors First 81
China Has More Investment Appetite than Others 81
Traditional Mining Majors Are Anxious to Break into Potash 82
Greenfield Potash M&A Review 83
Athabasca Potash Inc. – Searching for a Partner/Acquirer 85
Summary & Investment Recommendation 86
Capital Markets Profile 87
The Burr Project 88
Athabasca’s Other Exploration Permits for Sale 94
Investment Risks 95
Searching for a Strategic Partner: Focus on India 97
The Fall and Rise of Dawn Zhou 98
Valuation 99
Financial Forecast & Sensitivity Analyses 100
Management & Directors 109