【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月美国化肥行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：179
        【目录或简介】：
We initiate coverage of the US fertilizer industry
We are initiating coverage of the US fertilizer industry with Hold ratings on
PotashCorp and Mosaic and a Buy on Agrium. While powerful global trends are
driving fertilizer demand higher, and the fertilizer market is recovering vs a
depressed 2009, oversupply in potash and phosphate will likely limit price potash
price appreciation while driving phosphate prices lower. With fertilizer share prices
up sharply since November driven by the recovery and M&A activity, absolute and
relative valuations for Potash and Mosaic are in-line to above historical averages.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at
http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE
LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Coverage Change
Companies featured
Potash Corp. (POT.N),USD114.92 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 3.25 5.00 7.00
P/E (x) 28.9 19.0 13.6
EV/EBITDA (x) 18.0 10.8 8.2
Mosaic (MOS.N),USD60.43 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 4.24 2.20 4.00
P/E (x) 15.5 27.5 15.1
EV/EBITDA (x) 9.9 13.3 8.1
Agrium (AGU.N),USD67.18 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 2.32 5.00 6.05
P/E (x) 19.6 13.4 11.1
EV/EBITDA (x) 11.2 8.1 6.2
Powerful global trends are driving fertilizer demand growth of 3% p.a.
While fertilizer share prices and product prices are well off their June 2008 peaks
(potash prices are down 60%), the powerful global trends which drove the prior
peak remain intact. These include a growing population, rising disposable income,
increasing protein consumption, growing use of bio-based fuels and limited
growth in cultivated land. At the same, agriculture fundamentals (commodity
prices, farm income) have strengthened and appear poised to remain strong for
the foreseeable future. As such, we believer fertilizer demand will return to its
historical long-term growth rate of 3% per annum following a 7% decline in 2009.
Oversupply will limit potash price gains and push phosphate prices lower
Both potash and phosphate are in oversupply and will likely remain so for most of
the decade. We forecast operating rates for potash of 77-84% and 70-79% for
phosphates from 2010-18. While potash’s superior market structure and high
barriers to entry should help mitigate the effects of this excess supply, we believe
this excess supply will restrain potash price increases (we estimate $400/m.t. fob
Vancouver in 2012 vs $310-$360/m.t. today) and push DAP prices lower (we
forecast Tampa DAP prices bottoming at $340/m.t. in 2012 vs $500/m.t. today).
PotashCorp: Initiate coverage with a Hold and a $120 price target
Already the world’s largest potash producer, PotashCorp is expanding its capacity
to take advantage of compelling economics and l-t growth. However with the
shares trading at 21.5x NTM EPS vs a 10-yr avg of 20.0x, we initiate with a Hold.
Mosaic: Initiate coverage with a Hold and a $65 price target
Mosaic’s balanced portfolio of low-cost phosphates (#1 in world) and potash (#3)
should result in lower earnings volatility. However with Mosaic trading at 15.4x
‘11E EPS vs a 5-yr avg NTM P/E multiple of15.8x, we initiate with a Hold.
Agrium: Initiate coverage with a Buy and a $85 price target
As the leading N. American retailer of ag inputs (and a major producer of all 3
nutrients), we believe Agrium’s unique and diverse growth prospects set it apart.
With the Retail business undervalued at 5.0x ‘11E EBITDA, we initiate with a Buy.
Valuation: DCF & multiple analysis. Key risks: prices, capacity, bio-fuel tgts
Our price targets are based on blended approach utilizing DCF analysis an
traditional multiple analysis. Key risks include falling crop prices and lower farm
incomes which could result in farmers spending less on fertilizers, larger and
faster than expected phosphate and potash capacity additions and a lowering of
bio-fuel targets which could reduce demand and prices for corn and soybeans.

Table of Contents
Investment Thesis ............................................................................. 3
The long-term case for fertilizers ..................................................... 8
Fertilizer 101..................................................................................... 17
The Fertilizer Industry ..................................................................... 25
Nitrogen ........................................................................................... 36
Phosphate ........................................................................................ 48
Potash............................................................................................... 62
Company Section ............................................................................ 82
PotashCorp....................................................................................... 83
Mosaic ............................................................................................ 100
Agrium............................................................................................ 113
Financial Models............................................................................ 139
Appendix A: Glossary of terms..................................................... 157
Appendix B: Fertilizer Use Background....................................... 161
Appendix C: Agricultural Backgrounder...................................... 163