【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月土耳其化肥行业研究报告
        【作者】：EFG Istanbul 证券
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：69
        【目录或简介】：
Table of Contents
Page
FERTILISER SECTOR
Global Outlook 3
Key determinants of fertiliser supply and demand conditions 3
Global economic recovery 3
Oil/Natural Gas price and bio-fuel demand 3
Chinese & Indian effects 4
Farmer expectations for fertiliser prices 4
The population and number of hungry people 4
Weather conditions 4
Turkish Fertiliser Industry 5
Market balance 5
Competitiveness 5
Growth potential 6
Market Concentration 7
Low CUR and Consumption 7
GAP Project 7
Conclusion 8
COMPANIES
Gubretas 10
Bagfas 26
Ege Gubre 35
Appendix : Type of Fertiliser, and Fertiliser
Production Process 44

Off Season for Fertilisers..!
􀂃 Wild price gyrations warrant caution -- In line with massive fluctuations in commodity prices over the last two-three
years, we have observed sharp swings in fertiliser prices. It is clear that both peak and trough levels were exaggerated and
that prices have been prone to speculation. Hence, we believe caution is warranted in evaluating the price movements, as
well as the general outlook of the sector.
􀂃 Recovery still fragile -- Starting from 4Q09, a recovery is apparent both in terms of consumption and pricing in the
sector. However, as the factors to have contributed to the price strength are largely of a temporary nature, we believe
current price levels are not indicative for the long run and that any optimism on pricing outlook would be premature. The
main reasons underlying our “Cautious” rating for the sector are as follows:
􀂃 As 4Q and 1Q are typically strong quarters for the fertiliser sector, making extrapolations for the long-term might be
misleading. Moreover, we are heading towards two seasonally weak quarters in terms of demand; i.e. 2Q and 3Q. The
upward momentum in prices appears to have cut pace over the last 1-month period, and we think a pull back in prices
is likely.
􀂃 Better-than-expected corn yield, particularly in the US, might prompt lower grain prices, which is key for farmers'
fertiliser demand. In addition, food futures -- one of the key indicators of global fertiliser demand -- and oil prices do
not confirm the latest fertiliser price increases.
􀂃 In 2008 and 2009, global fertiliser production exceeded consumption; i.e. fertiliser producers piled up inventories.
Therefore, we think rumours of reduced global fertiliser inventory levels are unfounded. On the other hand, expansion
plans are likely to put downward pressure on fertiliser prices in the long run. Note that both Saudi Arabia and Morocco
plan to raise their phosphate productions by 30% until 2013.
􀂃 Stock-specific themes attractive; yet, largely priced in -- We initiate coverage of three listed fertiliser producers:
Gubretas, Bagfas and Ege Gubre with L/T HOLD ratings. Apart from their exposure to the domestic fertiliser market, we
think all three companies have different core stories: Gubre Fabrikalari (“Gubretas”) (GUBRF TI): Iranian exposure;
Bandirma Gubre Fabrikalari (“Bagfas”) (BAGFS TI): semi-integrated structure; and Ege Gubre (EGGUB TI): logistics
services. While we reckon most of the positives are already priced in, our favourite pick among listed companies is
Gubretas, given its solid positioning as a regional player, and exposure to thriving Chinese and Indian markets. In addition,
we commend its corporate governance standards and investor friendly approach. On the other hand, Ege Gubre is our
least favourite pick among listed players, given its stretched valuation on 74% outperformance over the past year, mainly
on expectations related to its logistics services, whose prospects largely hinge on economic recovery gaining traction.
􀂃 Though not included in our sector report, Tekfen has an exposure to the fertiliser business through Toros Tarim, which is
the leading company in the sector with a 33% market share. We have a “BUY” recommendation on Tekfen with TRL6.65
target share price, representing 17% upside potential. Please refer to our Tekfen Company Report (“Fertile Ground”) dated
December 9, 2009, for a detailed evaluation of the Company.