【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月土耳其化肥行业研究报告
        【作者】：EKSPRES INVEST
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：46
        【目录或简介】：

Much better conditions expected in 2010. Starting from 4Q08, fertilizer companies in
Turkey incurred substantial inventory losses for four consecutive quarters. As product
prices stabilized in 2H09 and almost all inventory losses were recorded in 9M09, the
recovery in the industry kicked off in 4Q09. With the expected economic revival, we
estimate normalization to occur in prices and margins for the fertilizer industry in 2010.
The fertilizer sector in Turkey is rather concentrated. There are mainly six active
producers in Turkey and four of them capture nearly 80% market share. Since major
players have very well established distribution networks, barrier to entry in the sector is
relatively high. Hence major producers are also the main importers of the market.
Growth potential of consumption is limited in the long term. There is seemingly a
growth potential for demand as per hectare fertilizer usage of Turkey (80 kg) is
significantly lower than the average usage of European countries (250 kg). However,
due to some structural problems such as low purchasing power of farmers, volatility in
subsidies and insufficient technologies, we do not believe Turkish fertilizer industry can
demonstrate high demand growth rates in the long run. We set a cap to total demand at
5.8mn tons.
The sector is highly import dependant. Due to the lack of raw material resources in
the country, more than 85% of the raw material need is imported. This dependency on
imported raw materials also limits the product range of the producers. In Turkey, around
40% of the fertilizers consumption consists of imported end products. Hence, in terms of
end product and raw material prices, Turkey mostly follows the supply-demand
conditions in the global industry.
Fertilizer subsidies will be paid in one installment in 2010. For 2010, for the first time
the government decided to provide fertilizer support payments in one go in February. We
think this might have a positive impact on fertilizer consumption as farmers will be more
confident on the amount of subsidy they will receive in 2010.
Bagfas – recovery prospects mostly priced in. As the company owns some raw
material resources it has significant cost advantages and enjoys the highest margins in
Turkey. Hence, we think the company will be the main beneficiary of the expected
recovery. However, according to our blended valuation, recovery prospects are mostly
reflected in the current market value of Bagfas. Hence, we initiate our coverage with a
MARKET PERFORMER rating.
Ege Gubre – new container port revitalizing the future. Cash inflow (US$165mn in
the next 15 years) from the new container terminal will be the main value driver for the
company. We believe the current MCAP of the company is far from reflecting the
potential value coming from container business and the recovery in the fertilizer
segment. We reiterate our MARKET OUTPERFORMER rating.
Gubre Fabrikalari – a moving story with limited upside potential. The new flexible
price regime in Iran is expected to significantly increase the EBITDA contribution of Razi
to Gubretas. However, with the recent surge in the stock price, prospects seem to be
mostly priced in. We initiate our coverage with a MARKET PERFORMER rating.
Risks to our valuations: Potential positive or negative deviations in our fertilizer prices
and cost estimates, any disruption or slower than expected recovery in the global or
Turkish economy, devaluation or revaluation in TL.