【出版时间及名称】：2010年欧洲商业服务行业前景展望
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：55
        【目录或简介】：

Stock-picking key in FY10: Choosing the right
sub-sector was central to investing in FY09. However,
the valuation gap between the cyclicals and defensives
has now closed. Overall we see only 5% upside to the
Business Services sector, but there are some good
investment opportunities presenting up to 33% upside
from current prices.
Switch from Michael Page into Hays: Over the past
six months Page has outperformed its peer by 40%.
There are risks with Hays, but these are largely known
(public sector exposure) and have diminished a little
(dividend cut). On previous peak earnings Hays is now
trading at a 30% discount to Page, which is unjustified,
in our view.
Upgrade Wolseley to Overweight: We have long
recognized the value at Wolseley. Our concerns over
gross margin risk have now diminished, and we think
this unloved stock offers an attractive risk-reward,
especially within a fairly valued Business Services
sector. We continue to see Travis Perkins (OW) as a
safer play on a construction recovery, with its proven
management team and market share gains. However,
we now recommend building a small position in
Wolseley ahead of the strategic review on March 22.
Other top picks: Rentokil – a restructuring story with
70% upside to our 200p bull case based on incremental
admin savings and new growth initiatives; Experian –
potential upside from a share buyback programme and
returning to previous levels of organic growth; Carillion
– cheap growth on 8.4x P/E, 13% FCF yield and 5%
dividend yield for FY10e. A shift of focus back to organic
growth and improvement in support services margins
should drive the re-rating.
Also in this report: Reliable Growth – a look at a key
strategy theme and how it relates to Business Services;
3 surprises for the year ahead and a review of how last
year’s fared; 3 interesting and probable bull cases.