pe值只是一个大概参考，在公司估值中起不到太大的作用（个人看法，有不同意见咱们可以探讨），我是说给企业在经营生命周期中形成的所有净现金流量找一个合理的贴现率。
6# ectopic

Well, consider 2 companies that generated the same amount of cash flows this year, but one operates in the consumer staples sector, while the other operates in the IT sector. Now if you are buyer, would you value the 2 companies the same? Obviously not. The competitive landscape in consumer staples is typically much more stable than in technology, so it makes sense to use discount the cash flows differently.

I mentioned P/E only because you started talking about comparative valuation. Personally I do not use any valuation methods, because I trade stocks, I do not buy businesses. Valuation is useless to me. But P/E is very useful for gauging market expectations.

是的，如果两个公司在2009年底净现金流量相同，但我们绝不能说这两个公司价值一样，我们考虑的因素还有很多。正如阁下所说，“The competitive landscape in consumer staples is typically much more stable than in technology”。可是在这一点上我有不同的看法，我并不认为高科技企业的内在价值就一定高，或者就一定低。我判断的依据只有一个：即考虑到企业在整个经营周期（并不仅限于2009年）所能产生的净现金流量，以合理的贴现值贴现——当然只能是大致估测。实际操作上肯定有很大难度，所幸的是我们只需要找出很明显的胖子，而不必强行界定体重100公斤就是胖瘦的分界线。
再说P/E，不否认它在讨论公司相对价值时所起的作用，实际上它是很简捷实用的，但是为什么我说它有很大的局限性呢？第一，它没有考虑到企业未来经营状况，而企业在未来所能收获的净现金流量才应是我们最关心的；第二，P值就像科斯托兰尼的狗，它一会儿跑到主人的前面去，一会儿又跑到主人的后面去，总之，它没有安静的时候。还是以高科技企业为例，它在高科技股泡沫未破灭之前，其P/E值是寻常公司难以望其项背的，而其破灭之初，它又远远地落后了。
我想我们分歧的关键在于，我认为买股票就是买公司，而你好像有更有趣的想法，“Valuation is useless to me.”我很想知道，如果价值不起作用，那么什么应该起作用呢？
8# ectopic

Valuation is useless to traders because we only care about capital gains. When we buy, we buy because we expect price to go higher. As long as price keeps going up, the stock's fundamental value is irrelevant.

You can see that the trader's approach is different from Warren Buffett's investing philosophy. When Buffett buys, he expects to hold "FOREVER" (unless the business suffers a substantial change unexpectedly e.g. Moody's).  This means he does not lock in any capital gains, he does not care one bit if price goes through multiple cycles.

This brings up an important question. How many people have a mentality like Buffett's? I don't know any.

I know many people think they are investing like Buffett, but the reality is they are not as good as Buffett, they do not have the same skill, nor the mentality, and it is no surprise that they do not get the same results. People should realise it is extremely difficult to imitate Warren Buffett.

ectopic
说的蛮有道理，多介绍介绍吧！

我比较同意以上看法。安全边际，集中持有，长期持有有其内在联系。那些买了股票期望一年翻番甚至翻个千二八百倍的人是不理智的，至少从价值投资角度我们可以这么说。合理的价格、优异的公司最终会创造杰出的成绩。投资就是经营，复利的作用会成为有耐心的人的最好的帮手。我所说的贴现率也是建立在这个基础之上的，因为我要足够的安全边际，同时不至于保守到一辈子都在寻找“女人”而光棍一生的境地。这里我还要声明一点：我对“婚姻”是比较忠诚的，除非购入之后基本因素发生了本质变化，否则我不认为贸然“离婚”能收到最大的效益。
    那么，在此基础上，阁下在贴现率选择上有什么好的建议给我呢？
10# ectopic

I don't have a good suggestion. As I said I work backwards by looking at market P/Es to gauge market's growth and risk expectations i.e. market sentiment, but I don't actually try to do valuation.

All I know is the discount rate should be higher than your opportunity cost of capital. How much higher is up to you.

Of course, there are textbook answers, which I'm not going to bother.

By the way, if you like Buffett's approach, why don't you just copy his portfolio? I think that's the easiest and the most sensible thing to do.

嗯，是的，复制他的投资组合是极有效的，但是实际操作上有很多困难，对我来说。还有一点，巴老都八十多啦，虽然我希望他长命百岁，可是绝不会在这方面与人打赌。
    在这里重提上一个话题，如果你不关注价值，我想知道，还有什么东东对我们具有很好的指导意义，在投资或曰投机方面。

You can start with one of Van Tharp's books, available here at Pinggu.  "Trade Your Way To Financial Freedom" is a classic. "Super Trader" is more recent, but the underlying principles are the same.

多谢，我会抽时间看看。
16# ectopic

不同公司是不一样的

看来这哥们没有明白 @ectopic 的本意， 公司估值不会是一个死板的过程，公司的成长性和公司的商誉、专利等无形资产等都都需要考虑的，P/e后面的本质就是成长性。 如果只考虑增加的现金的贴现，当然可以所有的公司都用一个贴现，就10年期国债够了，但这有啥用呢？  一个企业还有非现金资产（固定资产，无形资产），只计算现金部分的贴现是不够的。 所以不同的企业可以选择不同的贴现率 （反过来说用不同的安全边际）

有道理。但我以为成长性（包括非现金资产）最终会体现在净现金流的增加上。