【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月南非采掘行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：47
        【目录或简介】：
Base, precious metals and bulks revised, generally higher
Our global macro team has reviewed the outlook for commodity supply and
demand fundamentals and has revised (generally higher) the near- and mediumterm
price forecasts for the base and precious metals and the bulk commodities.
Our commodity ranking is now in order of preference: PGMs, bulks, gold and base
metals (aluminium preferred) followed by crude oil.
Deutsche Securities (Pty) Ltd
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at
http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE
LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Forecast Change
Top picks
Anglo American (AGLJ.J),ZAR340.00 Buy
ARM (ARIJ.J),ZAR174.50 Buy
Metorex Ltd (MTXJ.J),ZAR5.35 Buy
Merafe Resources (MRFJ.J),ZAR1.42 Buy
Mvelaphanda Resources (MVLJ.J),ZAR50.75 Buy
Companies featured
Anglo American (AGLJ.J),ZAR340.00 Buy
2008A 2009E 2010E
DB EPS (USD) 4.33 1.85 4.02
P/E (x) 11.0 25.1 11.5
ARM (ARIJ.J),ZAR174.50 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
DB EPS (ZAR) 10.79 6.52 21.79
P/E (x) 13.5 26.8 8.0
BHP Billiton Plc (BILJ.J),ZAR248.23 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
DB EPS (USD) 1.92 2.31 3.28
P/E (x) 11.0 14.7 10.3
Exxaro Resources Ltd (EXXJ.J),ZAR109.20 Hold
2008A 2009E 2010E
DB EPS (ZAR) 10.06 -0.12 8.36
P/E (x) 10.2 – 13.1
Kumba Iron Ore Ltd (KIOJ.J),ZAR323.01 Sell
2008A 2009E 2010E
DB EPS (ZAR) 22.54 19.56 23.01
P/E (x) 11.2 16.5 14.0
Merafe Resources (MRFJ.J),ZAR1.42 Buy
2008A 2009E 2010E
DB EPS (ZAR) 0.42 -0.04 0.16
P/E (x) 5.7 – 9.1
Metorex Ltd (MTXJ.J),ZAR5.35 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
DB EPS (ZAR) 0.24 0.41 1.01
P/E (x) 27.7 12.9 5.3
Mvelaphanda Resources (MVLJ.J),ZAR50.75 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
DB EPS (ZAR) 16.55 1.68 1.36
P/E (x) 1.9 30.2 37.4
Global Markets Research Company
Global recovery underway but stocks fully reflect the outlook
We are forecasting global growth of 4% in 2010 with a significant OECD recovery
and continued EM strength. The Chinese restocking event of 2009 is not expected
to recur and hence we prefer the later cycle consumer recovery (PGMs) over the
infrastructure and traded commodities (copper and iron ore) which have already
performed strongly through 2009. Higher prices will continue to drive upgrades to
earnings and support the sector at or above current levels, though muted
compared to the 2009 performance.
We prefer Anglo over BHP
We continue to prefer Anglo over BHP. We think that Anglo has more value to be
realised from non-core asset sales as well as procurement and asset optimisation
benefits and has a better production growth outlook in over through to 2012. We
think that the failed approach by Xstrata has kick-started a process of change that
will continue to bear fruit. We also like the fact that Anglo has exposure to a
number of late cycle commodities that did not perform in 2009 and more
consumer than infrastructure orientated. BHP is fully valued in our view and there
remains a risk that BHP will make an acquisition, though cashflow remains strong.
Among the mid caps we favour
ARM, Metorex and Merafe are preferred over Exxaro and Kumba Iron Ore.
NB: This report changes price targets, and estimates for several companies under
coverage.