【出版时间及名称】：2010年美国软件行业前景展望
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：58
        【目录或简介】：
Software
2010 Outlook: A Return to
Themes and Stockpicking
Conclusion. Unlike Jan. ‘09 when we were broadly
positive on software, we think 2010 will see a return to
thematic investing and stockpicking. With cyclical
recovery now our base case, our investment framework
looks for: a) secular themes, b) positive revisions, c)
company-specific catalysts/cycles, and d) attractive
valuations to drive outperformance. Based on these
criteria, MSFT, ORCL, TLEO, and SWI have the
greatest potential for 20-25% returns in CY10. Below
are our 4 thematic areas.
Applications. Apps. may surprise favorably in 2010
with Software as a Service leading the recovery as the
recession has permanently altered app. buying towards
smaller purchases, modular deployment and
outsourcing. We also expect to see a strong consumer
cycle driven by rich internet apps. — with consumer and
enterprise apps. continuing to converge. Our best plays
are TLEO, ORCL, ADBE and we like CRM on pullbacks.
Security. Stock picking will be important here, with the
best opportunities in unified threat management (UTM),
cybersecurity, and data protection. Endpoint security
will change with consumer economics worsening, the
value moving to new areas like DLP, and the migration
to the cloud changing delivery models. FTNT and ARST
are our favorite plays here.
Infrastructure: Two key trends shaping our views on
the infrastructure layer: 1) Data Center build outs will
accelerate around cloud, e-commerce and mobile
applications and 2) scale & stack vendors will emerge
from the recession as price leaders and share gainers.
We favor ORCL, SWI, MSFT and RHT.
PCs, Servers & Ads. Most are bullish on the PC and
server cycle for CY2010, and we like the cyclical
recovery story in the advertising market as well. While
somewhat consensus, we can still invest in the material
recovery in these segments. The key to outperforming
from here will be identifying stocks that don’t fully
discount the acceleration. ADBE and MSFT are our
favorite plays on these themes, and RHT on pullbacks.