【出版时间及名称】：2010年土耳其银行业展望
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：56
        【目录或简介】：
Turkish Banks
Retail Wins in 2010; Buy Yapi
Kredi and Garanti
We upgrade Yapi Kredi and Garanti to Overweight
as they are most levered to the consumer-led
rebound. A strong underwriting culture and intense
focus on funding costs should allow each bank to
continue gaining market share and still deliver 20% ROE
on their mortgage business. Yapi Kredi remains our top
pick in Turkey, as it will additionally benefit from
leveraging up its existing card-driven business.
Disinflation helps the mortgage market undergo a
structural acceleration to 15% of GDP by 2025. We
believe the Turkish mortgage market will grow at 20%
CAGR till 2015 as affordability constraints lessen,
pent-up demand materializes and income growth
rebounds. We expect the Turkish consumer to leverage
up to 30% of income, vs. current 20% by 2015.
Newly achieved affordability adds TRY4.7bn (23%)
to banking earnings potentially, as an additional
2.7mn households qualify for a mortgage. We
estimate the income needed to service an average
mortgage decreases 40% post 1025bp easing cycle,
bringing total “affordable” households to 4.5mn from
1.8mn in 2008. Demographics, tight underwriting, and
supply imbalance in the housing market provide further
support.
Credit improvement trumps interest rate risk in
earnings. 2010 will see the reversal of 2009 P&L drivers,
with NIM compression being offset by credit quality
gains. We expect YKB and Garanti to grow EPS by 12%
and 6%, flat for Akbank and Isbank.
Interest rates are a key short-term risk. Contained
inflation in 2010 and 2011 should result in lower than
historical real interest rates, as the Turkish risk premium
contracts. The short-term risk to margins and valuations
may create some headwinds.
Within EMEA, our top picks are Sberbank, Standard
Bank, Yapi Kredi and Garanti.