【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月澳大利亚镍行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：29
        【目录或简介】：
Sector discounting US$6.8/lb flat Ni, upgrading WSA and PAN to BUY
The Australian nickel sector is trading at 0.8xNPV, and is discounting an average
US$6.8/lb flat Ni (and 0.88 AUDUSD), 18% below spot (~US$8.3/lb). We remain
cautious on the 1H 2010 Ni outlook, but are positive in 2H on an expected
increase in stainless steel demand. We have upgraded WSA (0.84xNPV) and PAN
to BUY (0.68xNPV), MCR to HOLD (1xNPV), our top sector picks remain MBN
(0.62xNPV) and IGO (0.73xNPV). MBN is discounting US$6.40/lb flat Ni.
Deutsche Bank AG/Sydney
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at
http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE
LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Forecast Change
Top picks
Mirabela Nickel (MBN.AX),AUD2.01 Buy
Independence Group (IGO.AX),AUD3.89 Buy
Companies featured
Mirabela Nickel (MBN.AX),AUD2.01 Buy
2008A 2009E 2010E
P/E (x) 37.2 – –
Div yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0
Price/book (x) 2.8 1.1 1.1
Independence Group (IGO.AX),AUD3.89 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) 12.5 17.2 7.7
Div yield (%) 1.8 1.5 1.5
Price/book (x) 2.7 2.0 1.4
Mincor Resources (MCR.AX),AUD1.49 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) – 8.2 7.5
Div yield (%) 5.3 2.7 2.7
Price/book (x) 1.5 1.3 1.1
Minara Resources (MRE.AX),AUD0.66 Sell
2008A 2009E 2010E
P/E (x) – 22.6 14.2
Div yield (%) 0.0 1.0 1.4
Price/book (x) 0.4 0.9 0.8
Panoramic Resources (PAN.AX),AUD1.84 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) 13.0 6.4 6.3
Div yield (%) 7.5 2.2 0.0
Price/book (x) 1.6 1.1 0.9
Western Areas (WSA.AX),AUD4.18 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) – – 6.2
Div yield (%) 0.0 0.0 1.2
Price/book (x) 7.7 4.3 1.9
Global Markets Research Company
Valuation metrics and near term catalysts
MBN (Top Pick BUY) – remains our top sector pick trading at 0.6xNPV. We expect
the stock to receive a significant re-rating when Stage 1 nameplate (17ktpa) is
achieved in June Q 2010. Recent challenges (mining fleet availability and low Ni
recovery) should improve by June Q. Based on our 2010 forecasts; 12.3kt of Ni
production, US$8/lb Ni, C1 costs of US$6.90/lb during ramp-up (vs. US$3.7/lb
LOM), Santa Rita should be cash break-even (post capex) in 2010. We forecast
the “cash dip” at ~A$50m during 2H 2010 vs. current reserves of ~A$95m.
Discounting US$6.4/lb flat Ni.
IGO (BUY) – trading at a ~25% discount to our NPV (A$5.33). The company is low
cost (<US$4/lb), and has exploration upside at both Moran (could contain >50kt of
Ni @7%) and Tropicana (BFS due in June Q). IGO also has cash and receivables of
A$145m and no debt. Discounting just US$4.6/lb flat Ni.
WSA (BUY) – despite a weak Dec Q driven by lower grades (transition from T1 to
T4), we believe the market has oversold the stock especially in light of the strong
production growth expected in 2H 2010. WSA appears attractive trading at a 15%
discount to our A$4.96/share NPV. Despite higher costs during Dec Q, WSA’s
projects are long life (+10yrs) and should be low-cost (US$2.7/lb LOM). More
importantly, WSA’s growth profile is compelling, increasing from 9.8kt in F2010 to
~29kt by F2012. Discounting US$7.5/lb flat Ni.
PAN (BUY) – US$4.2/lb cash costs, 18ktpa of nickel production for >8yrs, A$126m
in cash, no debt, and trading at just 0.7xNPV. Discounting US$6.8/lb flat Ni.
2010 Ni outlook – expect stainless steel demand pick-up in 2H
1H will be challenging for Ni due to weak stainless steel demand in the Europe
and the US where mill utilizations rates are operating at <70%. In addition, LME
stockpiles are at a 15yr high (~160kt), levels not seen since 1994. But in 2H 2010
we expect a pick-up in stainless steel demand driven by increased global
expenditure on transportation (17% of demand), utensils and appliances (33%)
and industrial equipment (25%). Over the LT we remain positive, as high cost
laterites (>60% of new supply from 2010-2015) and Nickel Pig Iron (cash costs
US$7.30-10.30/lb) should support the price, and we believe periods of high nickel
prices (>US$10/lb) may be common over the medium to LT.
Sector Risks and Price Targets
Our PTs are set broadly in line with our company valuations. Company valuations
reflect a LT AUDUSD @ 0.73, US$6.50 Ni, US$1.75/lb Cu, and US$650/oz Au
(@10% real discount rate). Sector macro risks include negative commodity and
currency moves, and company specific risks include project delays, capex
increases and exploration success.