【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月澳大利亚钢铁行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：32
        【目录或简介】：
Reporting season highlights the bottom may have been reached
While we believe OST was the only steel company to surprise on the upside this
reporting season (largely iron ore export related), we see significant value in the
sector currently given; 1) the Australian steel companies on average are trading at
a 30% discount to the Asia Pacific FY11 P/BV average; 2) OST and BSL are
strongly leveraged to an Australian recovery; 3) Some evidence of steel pricing
improvements in Q4FY10 should positively impact earnings.
Deutsche Bank AG/Sydney
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at
http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE
LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Industry Update
Top picks
BlueScope Steel Ltd (BSL.AX),AUD2.47 Buy
Companies featured
OneSteel Ltd (OST.AX),AUD3.53 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) 17.0 20.8 9.5
Div yield (%) 2.8 4.0 4.2
Price/book (x) 0.8 1.1 1.0
BlueScope Steel Ltd (BSL.AX),AUD2.47 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) 80.1 37.9 9.1
Div yield (%) 1.0 0.0 17.4
Price/book (x) 0.8 0.8 0.7
Sims Group Ltd (SGM.AX),AUD19.65 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) 99.4 37.0 16.8
Div yield (%) 1.7 1.4 3.1
Price/book (x) 1.7 1.2 1.1
Global Markets Research Company
BSL strongly leveraged to a residential recovery
BSL is ~2 times more leveraged than OST to a recovery in residential demand,
which is the key driver in our view for the 51% increase to Australian volumes
HOH. However, OST is ~2x more leveraged to engineering construction, which
while significant projects are planned, timing of delivery (and steel requirements)
are less certain. Nonetheless we think this will likely positively impact FY11. We
view a greater residential exposure at this point in the cycle as a positive.
BSL is our pick given its cheap and strong domestic residential leverage
We note BSL is currently at its cheapest P/B historically at 0.76x. Further, while
BSL is strongly leveraged to a residential recovery from a volume perspective,
earnings are more leveraged given residential products are higher margin, branded
products.
Some evidence of price recovery
We note steel prices have increased 28% on average from the trough. Further,
Japanese steelmakers have announced robust increases for 2QCY10 of ~US$100/t
and in the US price increases of $50/t have been announced by AK Steel.
… but, OST a strong iron ore beneficiary
We note OST has significant leverage to iron ore prices. Currently DB forecast
+34% increase to iron ore (fines) in JFY10 vs JFY09. If iron ore prices increase
50%, this would lead to a 10% upgrade to OST FY11 NPAT. Conversely, higher
iron ore prices +50% in JFY10 vs pcp would mean BSL would need to increase
prices a further US$30/t to offset this increase and alter our forecasts (we have
~US$80/t increase to prices factored into forecasts currently).
SGM is #3 in the sector given lack of earnings visibility
We believe SGM's 1HFY10 result reinforced the limited visibility of the company -
no guidance was provided and on average EPS was downgraded -22% after the
result. Further we note SGM raised $475m equity in November, of which $120m-
$150m capex will be spent in FY10. OST and SGM are reviewing acquisition
opportunities. OST have indicated its focus may be recycling businesses
(domestic and in the US) and SGM remains focused on US scrap.
Steel valuation and risk
Given the cash generative nature of OST and SGM businesses we value OST and
SGM using a DCF. Due to BSL operating at 100% capacity we value it at its mid
cycle valuation. Key risks for the steel sector includes a stronger AUD, softer steel
and scrap prices and an increase in long product imports into Australia. (For
details, please refer to page no. 26)