【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月欧洲纸品与包装行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：63
        【目录或简介】：

Industry beset with problems but priced in; UPM a
restructuring winner. The graphic paper industry is
facing its biggest challenge to date, in our opinion:
structural demand is declining, overcapacity is significant,
prices are under pressure and raw material costs are
rising rapidly. However, while fundamentals look
depressing, we believe the difficulties are priced in
(publication paper prices are at a 25-year low). Of the
three stocks we initiate coverage on, UPM is our top pick.
Mind the gap – is it time for consolidation?
The difference between paper prices and pulp, the main
input, has never been as small, and the squeeze on
margins for the non-consolidated players could be the
trigger for long-awaited consolidation. Another scenario
would be a series of closures. However, this is difficult
to envisage as the most obvious capacity has already
been shut down. That said, if the industry fails to take
out capacity, we are likely to see more bankruptcies this
year, with capacity closures following in their wake.
UPM – best play on consolidation (OW, PT