【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月日本SPE和LCD行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：42
        【目录或简介】：

2010 SPE and LCD capex
Both set to recover sharply in
FY3/11
Yoshikazu Higurashi
Research Analyst
(+81) 3 5156-6685
yoshikazu.higurashi@db.com
We raise our forecasts of semiconductors and LCD panel capex
We sharply increase our forecasts for semiconductors and LCD panel capex in
FY10, and also raise our earnings forecasts. Even given the possibility of another
correction in FY11, we think SPE share prices are undervalued compared to
historical levels.
Deutsche Securities Inc.
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may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
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http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE
LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Industry Update
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Global Markets Research Company
SPE shipment value: up 80.9% in FY3/11, down 4.8% in FY3/12
We see a significant possibility that semiconductor producers will resume capital
spending to increase capacity in response to robust demand for computers and
smartphones, rather than simply continuing to invest in miniaturization. We expect
that foundries will also begin to expand capacity, in addition to the MPU producers
that have continued to invest consistently. In addition, DRAM producers are
positioning themselves to survive by investing in miniaturization technology, while
NAND flash producers are planning or building new lines and fabs to make up for
capacity shortfalls and reduce costs. We expect the SPE shipment value to
increase from $19.1bn in FY09 to $34.6bn (+80.9%) in FY10 if these projects are
implemented. This would be a recovery to about 87% of the recent peak ($39.9bn
in FY07). However, we expect the SPE market to pause in FY11 following the very
sharp pace of the recent recovery. We forecast that FY11 shipments will fall 4.8%
to $32.9bn.
LCD panel capex: up 69.9% in FY11, down 29.7% in FY12
We forecast that LCD panel producers will also invest actively in response to firm
demand for LCD TVs. Even though twelve new production facilities and lines were
built in FY09, 25 are planned for FY10 (both calculated from when equipment is
installed). We regard this as evidence of a rapid recovery throughout the market.
This is despite large falls in the price of some equipment due to user pressure for
cost reductions. However, we expect that profits may improve less than expected
due to price falls and Korean suppliers expanding their share of some processes.
Valuation and risk
We base target prices for most SPE stocks on peak profit and a 20x P/E. We use
20x because SPE-related stocks have risen to this level vis-à-vis peak earnings
during past capital spending cycles in the semiconductor industry. However, we
believe FY3/11 will probably be the peak of the current earnings cycle, and that
growth in the SPE market will pause in FY3/12. We therefore use FY3/12 rather
than FY3/11 profit as the basis for target prices because of uncertainty in regard to
the degree of downside risk, assuming that FY3/12 does mark a pause in growth.
Positive risks include: (1) growth in the semiconductor and LCD panel markets
and (2) unexpected announcement of plans to build new factories. Negative risks
include: (1) downward revisions to capital spending plans due to a sharp
deterioration in the market and (2) mergers among semiconductor and LCD panel
producers.