【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月台湾TFT LCD行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：57
        【目录或简介】：

Taiwan TFT LCD
Team Sports
Where We Differ: 1. AUO is our top pick big cap stock
having lagged the market, and will outperform. TFT
stocks will be outperformers in 2Q10 on profit growth
despite soft seasonality, given LED proliferation trends.
2. AUO and Chimei Innolux will be differentiated from
Korean peers that own TV brands and panel capacity.
AUO focus is as a total solution display maker (e-paper,
OLED, etc) with LCD TV panel module/set assembly
joint-ventures in China and Europe as open platform
approaches. Chimei Innolux will have its own panel and
system integration capabilities in-house to gain tier one
TV assembly outsourcing while maintaining panel
open-cells to the top Chinese TV makers. 3. Relatively,
AUO will outperform Chimei Innolux in 2010 as the
merger integration takes time; Chimei Innolux will
outperform AUO in 2011 from synergy effects.
What's New: We upgrade Taiwan TFT LCD to
Attractive from In-Line. We update Chimei Innolux’s
combined financial model to reflect the merger by
lowering 2010/11 EPS, reflecting earnings dilution.
What’s Next – Strong get Stronger: As the Taiwan
panel industry is consolidated to be more competitive,
component makers should look for consolidation too to
be stronger as panel customers’ bargaining power has
improved post-consolidation. 1) For driver ICs, not only
have panel customers consolidated, major backend
foundry suppliers Chipbond/IST have also consolidated.
Thus, it would make sense for Novatek/Himax to explore
strategic opportunities, although neither has commented
on a possible tie-up. 2) Backlight module makers
Coretronic and Radiant, which have complementary
product portfolios but have not mentioned the possibility
of a tie-up, are seeing major competitors consolidating
with the announced Nano-Forhouse merger, as AUO
aims to increase in-house supply to 70%+ long term.
2010/11/12 Trends: 1) Seasonally driven 2010 – panel
price seasonal declines in 2Q10, rebound in 3Q10,
correction in 4Q10. LED proliferation will lead to profit
growth. 2) For 2011, TFT will be better than expected.
3) Fears of China new fab supply will be delayed to ‘12.