【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月澳大利亚石油天然气行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：34
        【目录或简介】：

It’s quarterly reporting time, but production and
revenue updates are not likely to emerge as key
share price drivers, in our view. News relating to LNG
projects is more important as Woodside, Origin, and
Santos all plan final investment decisions on LNG
developments this year. Each has to clear hurdles
before projects become a reality, but we believe the
growth potential is partly or totally reflected in equity
prices.
The Australian energy sector has not performed for
much of the year, despite higher oil prices. That is
because, on near-term earnings, none of the stocks
looks cheap. The valuation support appears to be
coming from undeveloped gas resources. To validate
that value, we believe a steady diet of news on LNG
projects is necessary, or alternatively, ongoing M&A and
asset deals.
Unfortunately, the global gas market is glutted, and
this heightens valuation risk for undeveloped gas. In our
view, this is not an ideal time to be launching new
projects, and either prices or volumes will have to give
ground.
What about those with no exposure to LNG? The
smaller E&Ps are leveraged to particular events, and
two that are differentiated are KAR (Poseidon
exploration program) and Eastern Star Gas (CSG
resource growth).
We mark-to-market oil price and exchange rates
across our coverage universe and refresh financials
ahead of quarterly reports in April. Our preferred
exposures remain WPL for immediacy of earnings and
longer-term potential and OSH for absolute discount to
fair value.