【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月美国液化天然气行业研究报告
        【作者】：Wells Fargo证券
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：40
        【目录或简介】：
NGL Market Overview. The composite price for a barrel of natural gas liquids
(NGL) decreased for the third consecutive month in March, to $1.11 per gallon
from $1.21 per gallon in February. NGL prices retreated 8% during March
despite a 6% improvement in crude oil prices. As a result, the NGL-to-crude oil
ratio weakened to 58% from 67%. However, processing margin remained
unchanged at $0.75 per gallon, due to a 19% decrease in natural gas prices.
• Updating Our Commodity Price Deck. Consistent with changes detailed in
our multi-company notes dated April 19, 2010, we have updated our commodity
price deck. For 2010, we forecast a crude oil price, natural gas price, NGL price,
and processing margin of $82.00 per barrel, $5.01 per million British thermal
units (MMBtu), $1.17 per gallon, and $0.74 per gallon, respectively, versus
$79.00 per barrel, $5.91 per MMBtu, $1.10 per gallon, and $0.59 per gallon
previously. For 2011, we forecast a crude oil price, natural gas price, NGL price,
and processing margin of $87.50 per barrel, $6.00 per MMBtu, $1.25 per gallon,
and $0.73 per gallon, respectively, versus $85.00 per barrel, $6.62 per MMBtu,
$1.23 per gallon, and $0.66 per gallon previously.
• Downward Pressure On NGLs From Production Outages Likely To
Persist Until May. NGL prices have declined 10% since the end of February.
The recent weakness is primarily due to lower ethane prices, which are down
25% since the end of February. Part of the pullback in ethane prices is due to less
demand from U.S. steam crackers that experienced downtime in March and
April due to planned and unplanned outages. Because the majority of these
petrochemical plants are tooled to crack light end products (i.e., NGLs), ethane
demand was negatively affected (approximately a 5% impact). A total of seven
units experienced outages last month, of which four were unplanned. As noted in
the Hodson Report, operating rates will likely remain artificially low in April
given additional planned maintenance turnarounds this month.
• Recent Pricing Weakness Also Attributable To Reduced Export
Activity. U.S. ethylene derivative export activity continues to decline
sequentially. The recent weakness is primarily attributable to three factors, in
our view. (1) Tight domestic ethylene supply has reduced the overall level of
product available for export. (2) As a result of this shortage, U.S. ethylene prices
have increased sharply, which, in turn, has made the United States' ethylenederivative
products more expensive and domestic exports less competitive
relative to other countries. (3) Demand from China has decreased due to high
inventory levels and new supply sources. Since the domestic supply issues are
temporary in nature, we expect the United States to regain its favorable position
on the global ethylene cash cost curve and exports to potentially rebound.
• We Remain Constructive On NGL Fundamentals. Over the past 12
months, we calculate that 3.7 million lbs. per year of heavy ethylene nameplate
capacity has been converted to accept ethane. This equates to roughly 60,000-
70,000 barrels per day (bbls/d) of incremental ethane demand (or about 8% of
the total market for ethane). Anecdotally, we have heard that petrochemical
producers could still convert another 130,000 bbls/d of heavy steam cracker
capacity to light end (NGL). Hence, we expect demand for NGLs to remain
strong. In addition, as the U.S. economy continues to recover, the pickup in
domestic petrochemical demand should help offset an expected moderation in
export activity longer term. Finally, tight fractionation capacity in the United
States should limit the supply of NGL components available in the market.