【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月中国地产行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：48
        【目录或简介】：
Latest policy moves to cool demand; investors should stay defensive
Sales growth of 1Q residential GFA decelerated to 34.2%, reaching a record level
of 138.6msqm, with higher volume in small cities and higher ASP in major cities.
Buoyant property sales in March prompted swift government action to cool
demand and dampen prices. We believe the latest mortgage policies will hurt
market demand and may lead to lower home prices this year. Significant growth in
new construction in 4Q09 and 1Q10 will lead to additional new supply in 2H10.
Hence, we recommend that investors continue to Underweight the sector.
Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Market Update
Table of contents
Selling prices .................................................... Page 02
Transaction volume .......................................... Page 05
New supply ...................................................... Page 14
Local residential markets.................................. Page 18
Investment property......................................... Page 27
Land supply and demand ................................. Page 35
Policy orientation .............................................. Page 36
Monthly performance...................................... Page 41
Valuation comparison ....................................... Page 42
Top picks
China Resources Land (1109.HK),HKD14.06 Sell
Agile Property (3383.HK),HKD8.79 Sell
Mingfa Group (0846.HK),HKD2.36 Buy
Franshion Properties (0817.HK),HKD2.26 Buy
China Vanke (200002.SZ),HKD7.65 Buy
China & HK NAV Discount NAV
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Jan-
07
Apr-
07
Jul-
07
Oct-
07
Jan-
08
Apr-
08
Jul-
08
Oct-
08
Jan-
09
Apr-
09
Jul-
09
Oct-
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10
Apr-
10
China HongKong
Index Performance 31/03/2010
Index 1M% 3M% 12M%
HSI 3.1 -2.9 56.4
HSCEI 7.4 -3.1 53.6
HSP 6.9 0.5 63.2
Coverage 1 26/04/2010
Company Last Price TP Upside
China Overseas 14.80 17.90 20.95
China Vanke - B 7.65 10.80 41.18
China Resource Land 14.46 12.00 -17.01
Country Garden 2.42 3.00 23.97
Guangzhou R&F 11.00 13.70 24.55
Agile Property 8.70 8.40 -3.45
Glorious Property 2.79 5.05 81.00
Franshion Properties 2.32 2.95 29.31
Shui On Land 3.59 4.10 14.21
Coverage 2 26/04/2010
Company Last Price TP Upside
Greentown China 8.20 9.50 15.85
Mingfa 2.39 3.25 35.98
Fantasia 1.56 2.50 60.26
Shanghai Forte 2.10 3.00 42.86
Zhong An 2.37 NA NA
Upcoming events Date
Deutsche Bank Access Asia Conference
10-13 May 2010
Global Markets Research Company
1Q ASP rose 15.7% y-o-y to Rmb4,932/sqm; higher growth in major cities
Volume in 14 major cities accounted for 24% of total sales in China, which saw an
average y-o-y volume increase of 9.6%, underperforming small cities. Shenzhen,
Shanghai, Nanjing, and Suzhou saw GFA sales declines, with Shenzhen suffering a
58.1% y-o-y decrease. ASP for 14 major cities increased 33.7% to Rmb9,351/sm,
90% higher than the China average. Recent weekly sales data for 35 major cities
also suggest that sales volume is reaching a level similar to end-2009.
New construction starts continue to grow at a fast rate
Total new construction starts of residential in China in 3M10 reached 259.5msqm,
up 62.7% y-o-y. March extrapolated new starts volume reached 141msqm, a
historical high. We believe this is partially the result of the government’s push to
increase supply since December 2009. Most of the major cities had substantial
new starts increases, while Chengdu, Xi’an and Nanjing saw a y-o-y decline. Four
cities in our coverage saw increases exceeding 100%.
Government determined to curb home prices and reduce speculation
Further credit tightening was initiated in April, demanding +50% down payments
and 1.1x the prime interest rate on mortgage of second home. In addition, the
government is asking cities with fast price increases to stop providing mortgage to
third home buyers and non-resident buyers. Tax measures are under consideration,
including property tax and LAT. The current policy move is believed to be the
strictest since 2007. We expect volume to decline in the next few months.
Commercial property starts to improve, driven by economic recovery
Rents and vacancy rates in large cities improved in 1Q10. We believe that the
recovery was supported by improvement in economic activity; in 1Q10, China
recorded 12% GDP growth. We expect a gradual recovery in rentals, given that
the vacancy rate in many cities still exceeds 20%.
Policy moves to increase S/T market volatility; prefer non-residential plays
We expect short-term sector-wide weakness to continue, while investors await
the new policy’s impact. We believe the government is determined to contain the
heated property market and current and future potential austerity measures by the
government will cap short-term upside for the sector. Our top Sells are CR Land
and Agile property. We believe non-residential plays are generally less sensitive to
policy measures and will benefit from a commercial property recovery; hence, we
prefer Mingfa and Franshion. We also like Vanke B and Glorious owing to their
relative valuation. The China property has underperformed the benchmark since
July 2009; we expect this trend to continue in 2Q10. We advise investors to
Underweight the sector. Key risks are policy changes that may hurt demand
growth in China.

Table of contents
Selling prices .................................................... Page 02
Transaction volume .......................................... Page 05
New supply ...................................................... Page 14
Local residential markets.................................. Page 18
Investment property......................................... Page 27
Land supply and demand ................................. Page 35
Policy orientation .............................................. Page 36
Monthly performance...................................... Page 41
Valuation comparison ....................................... Page 42