Data coal_1;
input
price@@;
difprice=dif(price);
time=intnx('month','1jan2003'd,_n_-1);
format time monyy.;
cards;
272
274
273
272
272
269
267
267
269
269
277
279
290
290
290
297
326
340
340
332
330
333
429
438
450
455
451
450
450
450
450
437
433
449
445
445
450
459
460
456
454
450
446
455
460
463
474
493
511
503
493
480
475
485
490
495
510
525
531
539
596
656
645
636
685
860
1000 940
940
938
808
624
627
598
585
595
607
602
590
595
614
642
725
780
810
815
733
729
;
proc
gplot;
plot difprice*time;
symbol
v=star c=red i=join;
proc
arima;
identify
var=price(1)
minic
p=(0:5) q=(0:5);
estimate
q=1 noint;
forecast
lead=5
id=time out=results;
proc
gplot
data=results;
plot price*time=1 forecast*time=2 l95*time=3 u95*time=3/overlay;
symbol1
c=blue i=none v=star;
symbol2
c=red i=join v=none l=1
w=1;
symbol3
c=green i=join v=none l=2
w=2;
run;
上面是程序的代码,预测的5期的结果,怎么都一样呢?哪位帮我解决一下啊?万分感谢!!!
Forecasts for variable price
Obs Forecast Std Error 95% Confidence Limits
89 750.4078 36.0938 679.6652 821.1503
90 750.4078 66.5547 619.9629 880.8526
91 750.4078 86.9270 580.0340 920.7815
92 750.4078 103.3589 547.8280 952.9875
93 750.4078 117.5152 520.0821 980.7334