附件列表：
报告摘要：
| Investors should pay close
attention to China’s renewedpolicy focus on income distribution and
urbanisation，particularly in the western regions (pages
4-6，13-20).
Shifting demographics are starting to reshape its
economicfuture and social trends. Together with severe income andregional
inequality (Gini coefficient over 50% in 2006)resulting from extremely low and
unevenly distributedlabour compensation，as well as the urban and rural
dualstructure，demographic change could trigger more socialunrest，undermining
both economic prosperity and socialstability. Thus，urgent policy response is
warranted.
Rebalancing the share of labour compensation as % ofGDP could
hurt corporate profits (pages 10-11). Its sharedropped by 13ppts in 1997-2007
and the trend needs to bereversed. In absolute terms，labour compensation
coulddouble in five years’time to an estimated RMB31trn by2015e，or roughly 45%
of GDP in that year. This inferspolicy-enforced redistribution of an estimated
RMB400bn+in 2011e out of either corporate profits or government tax.
And
don’t bank on an easing of liquidity to fuel China’sstock markets (pages 7-9).
While the case for aggressivetightening and more property austerity measures is
likely toweaken in 2H2010， it would be wishful thinking to expectthe government
to loosen up on monetary policy andproperty austerity measures to stimulate the
economy again.
Foreign capital inflows， a key driver of domestic
liquiditysupply through the PBoC’s sterilization， are set to moderate.
We
cut index targets further by 10-18%： MSCI China to65; Hang Seng Index to 22，000;
HSCEI to 13，000 andSHCOMP to 2，800， inferring a moderate 5-15% upside.
For
sector allocation， we overweight energy (↑)， consumerstaples and discretionary，
healthcare， IT and industrials (↑);are neutral on banks， insurance and materials
(↓); andunderweight on properties， IPPs and telecom
services. |
|
|
扫码加好友，拉您进群
全部版块
我的主页
收藏
