摘要翻译：
新冠肺炎2019（新冠肺炎）疫情在未来几个月和几年将如何发展？基于一项专家调查，我们研究了可能影响欧洲新冠肺炎的关键方面。未来的挑战和发展将在很大程度上取决于国家和全球疫苗接种计划的进展，令人担忧的变异体的出现和传播，以及公众对非药物干预措施的反应。短期内，许多人仍未接种疫苗，VOCs继续出现和传播，流动性和人口混合预计将在夏季增加。因此，过于过早取消限制的政策可能会引发另一波破坏性浪潮。尽管由于疫苗接种进展和夏季室内混合减少，传播机会减少，但这一挑战仍然存在。2021年秋天，室内活动的增加可能会再次加速传播，但必要的NPI重新引入可能太慢。如果疫苗接种水平不够高，发病率可能会再次大幅上升，可能会挤满重症监护室。因此，适度的、适应的NPI水平仍然是必要的。这些流行病学方面与经济、社会和健康相关后果放在一起，从而为新冠肺炎的未来提供了一个整体视角。
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英文标题：
《A look into the future of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe: an expert
  consultation》
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作者：
Emil Nafis Iftekhar, Viola Priesemann, Rudi Balling, Simon Bauer,
  Philippe Beutels, Andr\'e Calero Valdez, Sarah Cuschieri, Thomas Czypionka,
  Uga Dumpis, Enrico Glaab, Eva Grill, Claudia Hanson, Pirta Hotulainen, Peter
  Klimek, Mirjam Kretzschmar, Tyll Kr\"uger, Jenny Krutzinna, Nicola Low,
  Helena Machado, Carlos Martins, Martin McKee, Sebastian Bernd Mohr, Armin
  Nassehi, Matja\v{z} Perc, Elena Petelos, Martyn Pickersgill, Barbara
  Prainsack, Joacim Rockl\"ov, Eva Schernhammer, Anthony Staines, Ewa Szczurek,
  Sotirios Tsiodras, Steven Van Gucht, Peter Willeit
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最新提交年份：
2021
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Biology        数量生物学
二级分类：Other Quantitative Biology        其他定量生物学
分类描述：Work in quantitative biology that does not fit into the other q-bio classifications
不适合其他q-bio分类的定量生物学工作
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英文摘要：
  How will the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic develop in the coming months and years? Based on an expert survey, we examine key aspects that are likely to influence COVID-19 in Europe. The future challenges and developments will strongly depend on the progress of national and global vaccination programs, the emergence and spread of variants of concern, and public responses to nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). In the short term, many people are still unvaccinated, VOCs continue to emerge and spread, and mobility and population mixing is expected to increase over the summer. Therefore, policies that lift restrictions too much and too early risk another damaging wave. This challenge remains despite the reduced opportunities for transmission due to vaccination progress and reduced indoor mixing in the summer. In autumn 2021, increased indoor activity might accelerate the spread again, but a necessary reintroduction of NPIs might be too slow. The incidence may strongly rise again, possibly filling intensive care units, if vaccination levels are not high enough. A moderate, adaptive level of NPIs will thus remain necessary. These epidemiological aspects are put into perspective with the economic, social, and health-related consequences and thereby provide a holistic perspective on the future of COVID-19.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2107.01670