摘要翻译：
碳社会成本(SCC)是由综合评估模型(IAM)估算的，被政府机构广泛用于评估气候政策的影响。虽然关于获得的数值估计和相关的不确定性有一个持续的争论，但迄今为止很少关注SCC计算方法本身。本文试图通过对开放源码的IAM DICE（气候与经济的动态集成模型）中实现的SCC计算方法提供理论背景和经济解释来填补这一空白。我们的分析表明，目前的计算方法提供了一个近似值，在某些情况下可能工作得很好，而在其他情况下，估计值基本上（以4的因子）偏离“真实”值。这一偏差是由于目前的计算方法无法抓住IAM的两个关键组成部分----复杂的相互关联的系统----气候和经济----之间的联系，这两个组成部分都受到减排政策的影响。在DICE的建模框架内，目前估计的SCC将政策上不受控制的排放与经济上不合理的消费进行评估，这使得它与气候经济政策的应用无关，因此需要用一个更合适的指标来取代。可用于政策制定的一个明显的SCC替代方案是DICE模型的直接输出----社会最优边际减排成本(SMAC)，它对应于最佳碳排放减排水平下的技术可能性。在政策制定中，由于以前采用的是隐式近似，因此需要非常注意使用以前得到的SCC估计数。
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英文标题：
《Social Cost of Carbon: What Do the Numbers Really Mean?》
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作者：
Nikolay Khabarov, Alexey Smirnov, Michael Obersteiner
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最新提交年份：
2021
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分类信息：

一级分类：Economics        经济学
二级分类：General Economics        一般经济学
分类描述：General methodological, applied, and empirical contributions to economics.
对经济学的一般方法、应用和经验贡献。
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：Economics        经济学
分类描述：q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学，包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
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英文摘要：
  Social cost of carbon (SCC) is estimated by integrated assessment models (IAM) and is widely used by government agencies to value climate policy impacts. While there is an ongoing debate about obtained numerical estimates and related uncertainties, little attention has been paid so far to the SCC calculation method itself.   This work attempts to fill the gap by providing theoretical background and economic interpretation of the SCC calculation approach implemented in the open-source IAM DICE (Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy). Our analysis indicates that the present calculation method provides an approximation that might work pretty well in some cases, while in the other cases the estimated value substantially (by the factor of four) deviates from the "true" value. This deviation stems from the inability of the present calculation method to catch the linkages between two key IAM's components -- complex interconnected systems -- climate and economy, both influenced by emission abatement policies. Within the modeling framework of DICE, the presently estimated SCC valuates policy-uncontrolled emissions against economically unjustified consumption, which makes it irrelevant for application in climate-economic policies and, therefore, calls for a replacement by a more appropriate indicator.   An apparent SCC alternative, which can be employed for policy formulation is the direct output of the DICE model -- the socially optimal marginal abatement cost (SMAC), which corresponds to technological possibilities at optimal level of carbon emissions abatement. In policy making, because of the previously employed implicit approximation, great attention needs to be paid to the use of SCC estimates obtained earlier.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2001.08935