英文标题：
《Betting and Belief: Prediction Markets and Attribution of Climate Change》
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作者：
John J. Nay, Martin Van der Linden, Jonathan M. Gilligan
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最新提交年份：
2016
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英文摘要：
  Despite much scientific evidence, a large fraction of the American public doubts that greenhouse gases are causing global warming. We present a simulation model as a computational test-bed for climate prediction markets. Traders adapt their beliefs about future temperatures based on the profits of other traders in their social network. We simulate two alternative climate futures, in which global temperatures are primarily driven either by carbon dioxide or by solar irradiance. These represent, respectively, the scientific consensus and a hypothesis advanced by prominent skeptics. We conduct sensitivity analyses to determine how a variety of factors describing both the market and the physical climate may affect traders\' beliefs about the cause of global climate change. Market participation causes most traders to converge quickly toward believing the \"true\" climate model, suggesting that a climate market could be useful for building public consensus.
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中文摘要：
尽管有很多科学证据，但很大一部分美国公众怀疑温室气体正在导致全球变暖。我们提出了一个模拟模型作为气候预测市场的计算试验台。交易者根据社交网络中其他交易者的利润调整他们对未来气温的看法。我们模拟了两种可供选择的气候未来，其中全球温度主要由二氧化碳或太阳辐射驱动。这些分别代表了著名怀疑论者提出的科学共识和假设。我们进行敏感性分析，以确定描述市场和物理气候的各种因素如何影响交易员对全球气候变化原因的信念。市场参与导致大多数交易员迅速趋同，相信“真实”的气候模型，这表明气候市场可能有助于建立公众共识。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Computer Science        计算机科学
二级分类：Multiagent Systems        多智能体系统
分类描述：Covers multiagent systems, distributed artificial intelligence, intelligent agents, coordinated interactions. and practical applications. Roughly covers ACM Subject Class I.2.11.
涵盖多Agent系统、分布式人工智能、智能Agent、协调交互。和实际应用。大致涵盖ACM科目I.2.11类。
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一级分类：Physics        物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society        物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：Economics        经济学
分类描述：q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学，包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
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