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收藏 2011-07-10

What Makes Emerging Markets Great Investments?

Investors want to buy where the growth is, and Wall Street knows that growth is coming from the emerging markets. Main Street investors are still highly underweight this important sector of the global economy.

Sure developed markets like Germany have enjoyed a GDP boom this year, even beating at least one BRIC, Russia, in the first quarter. But 6% annualized GDP growth could be the top limit for Germany as that economy runs out of steam. Of course, the average GDP growth rate for China, India and other big emerging markets will exceed that.

While GDP can be helpful, there can be a disconnect between real GDP growth and actual equity market performance, where a lackluster stock market can exist in a country whose GDP regularly exceeds 6.5-7%. China is a case in point. Even with GDP growth of 9% in the 12 months ending in the first quarter, the iShares FTSE

Xinhua China (FXI) exchange traded fund has been a money loser all year.

In fact, with GDP growth generally a lagging indicator anyhow, it is often more rewarding to pay attention to policies at the margin that encourage economic growth when trying to predict outperforming global markets, says Vlad Signorelli, Global Research Director at boutique investment research firm Brettonwoods Research LLC in New Jersey. This is where the best emerging market capital markets will handedly outperform their counterparts in developed countries.

“Specifically, we’d be looking for those countries that are looking to maintain or lower rates of taxation on capital alongside a policy of gradual currency appreciation.

Predictability on tax rates is generally positive; meanwhile currency appreciation is a powerful ally in the fight against inflation, which has become a problem common to emerging markets this year,” he says.

“Ranking the BRICs from my favorite to least favorite we’d go with Russia, Brazil, China, India,” he says.

Paul Dietrich, Managing Director at Foxhall Capital in Conn. says short term, investors should stay away from Europe, sell European bank holdings and watch out for anything too closely tied to the US economy.

“I like the big US consumer brands that have a major presence in the emerging markets, like Coca-Cola because as a US company, they will do better because of their footprint in the emerging markets,” he says.

Main Street investors that have yet to get into the big emerging markets can either choose from an array of equity mutual funds, fixed income funds with higher yields than US Treasurys and investment grade status, or the main ETFs like FXI, the MSCI Brazil (EWZ), Market Vectors Russia (RSX) and Wisdom Tree’s India (EPI) fund. Dietrich sees the current lull in emerging market equity as a buying opportunity.

继续提供中文参考：新兴市场的投资吸引力究竟在哪？ http://t.cn/a0tMWt

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zhang533744

2011-7-10 08:35:34

61，61currency appreciation 货币升值 lackluster 没有活力的

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lucy430022

2011-7-10 08:42:39

Considering the current financial situations, short term investors should definitely stay away from Europe, sell European bank holdings and watch out for anything too closely tied to the US economy.

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bengdi1986

2011-7-10 09:14:37

What makes the emerging market great investment ? I believe that there is only one answer. That is the profit.

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whachel1976

2011-7-10 09:25:59

61,61
underweight
n. 重量不足
adj. 重量不足的
减持, 减码
run out of steam
vi. 减速
失去动力
筋疲力尽
a case in point
有关的事例,例证
lagging
n. 绝热材料, 支拱板条
adj. 落后的, 慢的, 迟缓的
动词lag的现在分词
rewarding
adj.有报酬的, 有益的, 值得的
动词reward的现在分词
go with
跟…相配；与…相伴；附属于
watch out for
密切注意，提防，留神
equity mutual funds
证券投资基金
lull
vt.使安静；缓和，哄骗 n.暂时的平息

Sometimes we need Sherlock Holmes in our real life. Why  can a lackluster stock market exist in a country whose GDP regularly exceeds 6.5-7%? Why are policies at the margin  that encourage economic growth when trying to predict outperforming global markets? It is somewhat complicated, and we are trying to find the reasons. Is it a coincidence?
Maybe it is really different from a highly market-oriented economy, as most investments depend on our government. They plan, execute, and we sometimes compare what they have done with that of foreigners.

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happylife87

2011-7-10 10:30:17

23,6

It is really hard to decide where to invest. It is more likely that an asset that is chosen by all will not perform well. I prefer to choose a low price asset that other people don't like.

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达濠仁

2011-7-10 10:40:38

61，61
Predictability on tax rates is generally positive , meanwhile currency appreciation is a powerful ally in the fight against inflation .

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66178446

2011-7-10 12:01:56

中国的股市不健全，政策导向太严重。。
新兴市场缺乏资金，资本成本较低，收益高，肯定吸引发达国家那些嗅觉灵敏的投资者。

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nkygwang

2011-7-10 12:38:28

经典,呵呵While GDP can be helpful, there can be a disconnect between real GDP growth and actual equity market performance, where a lackluster stock market can exist in a country whose GDP regularly exceeds 6.5-7%. China is a case in point. Even with GDP growth of 9% in the 12 months ending in the first quarter, the iShares FTSE

Xinhua China (FXI) exchange traded fund has been a money loser all year.

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心情晴朗

2011-7-10 13:32:48

60,60
actually i don't know how to reply... the article is short and easy to read , and the central idea is also very easy to grasp, but just as bengdi1986 said above"What makes the emerging market great investment ? I believe that there is only one answer. That is the profit."there is not too much conclusion...
well, from another perspective, the great investment in emerging countries also brings about great inflation..
I remember an economist says"investors get profits from the investment ,while the majority of people pay for the inflation “ 木有办法，木有办法···

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yushengfan

2011-7-10 14:52:37

可能我没有看明白，文章也提到了中国股市乏力，资本市场回报率不高，那么来中国投资赚什么呢？
we’d be looking for those countries that are looking to maintain or lower rates of taxation on capital alongside a policy of gradual currency appreciation.
做固定资产投资不好么？这个东西比金融市场的回报可能更贴近GDP。

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eaglestar

2011-7-10 17:49:24

58，58
This is a good paper. To be frankly, I don't why those greedy investors in the west have not put much of their attention in the emerging markets. Big investors like Buffett still invests large of his fortune in the west and developed countries while the emerging markets took account for a only small part. Proverb says that body of a starved camel is still bigger than a living horse, let alone it still has its last breath. There is hope that with the market economy gets its momentum in emerging markets, those greedy investors will finally smell the Golden East and be crowded in, But one thing for sure is that it may not bring the common people so much good.

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starskyjing

2011-7-10 21:24:54

49、49
emerging markets ,another goldfied . investors like hunters .where has fishy smell they surge up there.

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guoyongyi68

2011-7-10 21:31:23

说的有道理

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purplehairs

2011-7-10 21:52:26

Follow Me:58, 22

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yoyosuny

2011-7-10 23:27:45

6-6
路过，打酱油！

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zdshitiaogou

2011-7-11 00:17:47

a wonderful forum artical about emerging market economic

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baileiwen

2011-7-11 01:47:34

china's economic growth is mainly supported by the oversea investment, not by the citizen consume. after the financial crisis, the investment in china has become highly profitable. the profits of the oversea investment attracts so many investors to put their money in this emerging market, which proves to be a market full of chance and speculation. on the other hand, the sluggish foreign market squeeze the profit to some extent, pushing the foreign investor out to search for opportunity abroad.

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foxmonkey

2011-7-11 11:00:07

I don't think the idea is right. As we know ,the real investment be put must be march to it's economy situation but not the nation's political character.

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mscontrol

2011-7-12 17:05:05

61,61

EAGLES(Emerging and Growth-leading Economies) is a fashionable word for those sharp-eyed investors.
BRICS is overdue, but these countries are still important forces to push the world economy development

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