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20110923 Follow Me 136 by Denver
denver
4518 37
2011-09-23
Don’t expect China to ride to theeuro’s rescue
          The expectation that China might swoop down andrescue the euro in its hour of need is running high. Wen Jiabao, the premier,last week told a meeting of the World Economic Forum that “China is willing togive a helping hand, and we’ll continue to invest there”. But those expectingChina to offer anything more than symbolic assistance will soon bedisappointed.

              China knows that greater eurozone stability is inits national interest. The European Union is its second largest tradingpartner, and a disorderly collapse in Greece and other southern Europeancountries would have dire consequences for Europe’s economic prospects. Neitherturmoil in currency markets, nor sharp changes to trade flows, nor potentialmoves towards greater protectionism would be at all welcome in Beijing.

          More strategically, the euro’s ongoing success isvital if China is ever to escape the “dollar trap” that currently ensnares (诱入陷阱)its economy. Analysts believe that two-thirds of China’s $32,000bn foreignreserves are dollar-denominated, leaving it constantly fearful of a fallingdollar. China’s long-term goal is to make the renminbi an internationalcurrency, but this will take time. In the meantime, its interests are clearlyserved by a strong euro.

            For all that, however, any more than notionalsupport for the eurozone would come with significant political risks. China isnot stupid: it can see that the deadlock over Greece is less about money andmore about political will. To end the crisis every EU country, starting withGermany, must put aside its short-sighted self-interest. But with bothGermany’s people and politicians so divided, this is not going to happen.


           Put simply, investing in Greek, Portuguese, Irishand even Italian government bonds is now a hazardous activity. China is notgoing to go ahead without some form of iron guarantee from Germany and France,which seems equally unlikely.

           Naturally, Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, andFrance’s President Nicolas Sarkozy would be delighted if China took unilateralaction, but that would put Beijing in an awkward position – both risking abacklash in European public opinion and doing nothing to move towards the typeof a more fiscally united Europe that, ultimately, is required to sustain thesingle currency.

            Then, think of the money. Bailing out Greece is anexpensive business: 110bn Euro has already been spent by the EU and theInternational Monetary Fund, with about 120bn Euro more still needed. Ought Chinareally pay this amount to be a wealthy market economy?

             True, it might buy some temporary friendships,perhaps to be used when another country files yet more anti-dumping chargesagainst China at the World Trade Organisation. It would also be a publicstatement confirming China’s commitment to playing a more constructive role in theinternational capitalist system. But this, on its own, is hardly temptationenough.
            Some thinkers, including CNN’s Fareed Zakaria, haveeven suggested that China should be bribed to help out. Ideas include offeringa bigger role in the international financial system or pledging that a Chinesecandidate becomes the next head of the IMF. Yet even here, China may not beready. There is a serious shortage of qualified candidates for the latteroption; the former seems improbable for a country whose currency will not befully convertible for some time.

           The most likely outcome, therefore, is that Chinawill risk almost none of its extensive foreign reserves to rescue the euro. Itmay buy some small symbolic quantity of southern European bonds, as an ersatz (代用的)commitment to the future of the EU. But, in the end, China is an outsider. Itknows that America is retreating from European affairs, but it is not yet readyto take its place. As seen from Beijing, the euro is a European affair. And theEuropeans will have to make right their own mistakes.
Thewriter, Yang Yao, is director and professor at the China Center for EconomicResearch at Peking University

         Response by Kerry Brown

               China is missing a golden opportunity finally tobecome a world power  Yao Yang is probably right in saying that theChinese – despite sitting on some $3,200bn of foreign reserves – are likely tokeep their distance from purchasing large amounts of European bonds and comingto the rescue of the Greek economy. They do regard it as a problem arising frominternal political disunity in the European Union. As Beijing sees it, the onlyreal solution to the current crisis is for European leaders to get their actstogether, show some political will, make clear that the crisis is soluble (可解决的,注意发音，美国英语中把l放在前面一个音节的，所以第二个音节以ju开头，而不是lju) – and continue tosell unpopular bail-outs（纾困） for the profligate （恣意挥霍的）Greeks to their owndomestic constituencies（选民）.

            In narrow terms, it is right for China to becautious. But one cannot ignore this nagging （唠叨的；挑剔的；使人不得安宁的）feeling that China is missing a golden opportunity to finally become a worldpower. Bailing out the eurozone would create immense political goodwill andwould drive further down the road towards the kind of world no longer dominatedby the US but genuinely multipolar. It would integrate more deeply China’seconomy into the global one, and might even form a kind of stepping stone to theinternationalisation of the renminbi in a few years time.

             The Chinese government’s mantra （格言，流行的说法）offocusing on domestic issues before looking to the world around it is becoming abit tiresome now. Just as problems in China’s vast internal provinces areinternational because of their links to global supply chains and the stabilityof the country itself, so the woes of EU states are of intimate importance toChina. It might get some satisfaction from seeing sanctimonious （假装虔诚的；假装圣洁的；假装诚实的）Europeansbeing hit by the kind of problems they once predicted for Asia. But if it looksbeyond narrow self-interest, to a wider vision of its future as aninternational power, dealing with the Europeans on the EU debt issue makespolitical and, in the long-term, economic sense. Not doing so shows the samelack of political will that it berates （严责；申斥）westernleaders about.

Thewriter is head of the Asia Programme at Chatham House, leading the Europe ChinaResearch and Advice Network (Ecran). The views expressed here are his own anddo not reflect those of the EU


  PS：很多地方加上颜色只是为了方便大家阅读，避免视觉疲劳！
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全部回复
denver
2011-9-23 00:09:53
中国该不该救欧元？
北京大学中国经济研究中心主任姚洋 , 英国皇家国际事务研究所亚洲项目负责人凯瑞•布朗联合为英国《金融时报》撰稿
如今人们对中国抱有很大期待，指望它能从天而降、拯救欧元于危难之间。上周，中国总理温家宝在世界经济论坛(WEF)开幕式上表示，中国“愿意伸出援助之手，继续加大对欧洲的投资”。然而，那些指望中国不仅仅会提供象征性援助的人，很快就会失望。
中国知道，欧元区更加稳定符合中国国家利益。欧盟(EU)是中国第二大贸易合作伙伴，希腊和其他南欧国家若陷入混乱和崩溃，会给欧洲经济前景带来灾难性影响。无论是汇市出现动荡、贸易流动发生剧烈变化，还是贸易保护主义抬头，都不是中国政府愿意看到的。
从战略角度讲，如果中国想要逃出当下束缚其经济的“美元陷阱”，那么欧元屹立不倒就有着至关重要的意义。分析人士认为，中国3.2万亿美元的外汇储备中，有三分之二是以美元计价的，这导致它时刻在担心美元贬值。中国的远期目标是实现人民币国际化，但这需要时间。在此期间，欧元保持强劲显然符合中国的利益。
但尽管如此，如果向欧元区提供具有实质意义的支持，将给中国带来巨大的政治风险。中国不笨：它看得出来，围绕希腊问题形成的僵局与其说关乎金钱，不如说关乎政治意愿。要终结这场危机，以德国为首的每一个欧盟国家都必须抛开短视的私利计较。然而，在德国民众和政界双双出现严重意见分歧的情况下，欧盟不可能做到这一点。
简言之，如今投资希腊、葡萄牙、爱尔兰乃至意大利国债，是一种冒险行为。在德国和法国做出某种形式的坚定承诺之前，中国是不会采取行动的——而这两个国家似乎都不太可能做出承诺。
当然，如果中国单方面采取行动，德国总理安格拉•默克尔(AngelaMerkel)和法国总统尼古拉•萨科齐(NicolasSarkozy)肯定会感到欣喜，但这样一来，中国政府将陷入尴尬的处境：一方面可能遭遇欧洲公众舆论的强烈反弹，另一方面可能对促进欧洲财政团结起不到任何帮助，而欧洲财政团结归根到底正是维持单一货币体系长期存在所必须的。
我们再来算算经济账。纾困希腊是一笔代价高昂的买卖：欧盟和国际货币基金组织(IMF)已为此花了1100亿欧元，接下来还需再花费约1200亿欧元。为了成为一个富裕的市场经济国家，中国真的应该为此埋单吗？
诚然，埋单可以买到暂时的友谊，或许当再有哪个国家在世贸组织(WTO)提出更多针对中国的反倾销诉讼时，这种友谊能派上用场。埋单也许还能够公开证明，中国关于在国际资本体系中扮演更富建设性角色的承诺所言不虚。但仅凭这一点不足以吸引中国掏钱。
包括美国有线新闻网(CNN)的法里德•扎卡里亚(Fareed Zakaria)在内的一些思想家，甚至建议应当通过收买拉拢的方式，说服中国伸出援手。他们出的点子包括，让中国在国际金融体系中扮演更重要的角色，或承诺推举一位中国人担任下届IMF总裁。但即便真有这种机会，中国方面也未必做好了准备。中国国内几乎找不到什么可出任IMF总裁的合格人选；至于前者，对一个本币在相当长时间内都依然不可全面自由兑换的国家来说，也不大现实。
因此，最有可能出现的结果是，中国几乎不会冒险动用自己的巨额外汇储备来拯救欧元。中国可能会象征性地购买少量南欧国家债券，作为对欧盟未来的名义上的承诺。但归根结底，中国会置身局外。中国明白，美国正在撤出欧洲事务，而中国现在还没准备好取代美国的位置。在中国政府看来，欧元即属于欧洲事务，而且欧洲人自己犯的错误必须自己去改正。
这段文字的作者是北京大学中国经济研究中心(ChinaCenter for Economic Research)主任姚洋教授。
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凯瑞•布朗(Kerry Brown)的回应
中国正在错失一个彻底成为全球强权的黄金机会姚洋表示，尽管坐拥约3.2万亿美元外汇储备，但中国多半不会购买大量欧洲债券并出手纾困希腊经济。他的判断很可能是正确的。中国人确实认为这个问题源自欧盟内部在政治上的不团结。正如中国政府所认为的那样，唯一能真正解决眼下危机的办法是，欧洲各国领导人统一行动，展示出一定的政治意愿，明确表示这场危机是可以解决的，并继续向本国选民兜售不受欢迎的纾困计划，以拯救挥霍无度的希腊人。
从狭隘的角度来看，中国保持谨慎是正确的。但人们不能无视一种令人不安的感觉，即中国正在错失一个彻底成为全球强权的黄金机会。纾困欧元区将释放巨大的政治善意，进一步推动各国走向一个不再由美国主导的、真正的多极世界。它会让中国经济更深地融入到全球经济中，甚至可能会为在未来几年实现人民币国际化提供某种踏板。
中国政府一贯的主张是，先致力于解决国内的问题，再放眼世界。这一主张现在已变得令人有些厌倦。正如中国国内一些大省的问题会影响到国际社会一样（因为它们关系到全球供应链以及中国自身的稳定），欧盟国家的困境对中国也有着切身影响。看到伪善的欧洲人正在遭受他们曾预言会出现在亚洲身上的那类问题的打击，中国可能会感受到些许快意。但如果超越狭隘的私利计较、着眼于未来成为国际强权的更广阔愿景，那么在欧债问题上与欧洲人打交道，在政治上和经济上（长期而言）就是合乎逻辑的做法。如果不这样做，那就表明中国在痛斥西方领导人缺少政治意愿的同时，自己同样缺少这种意愿。
上面这段文字的作者是英国皇家国际事务研究所(ChathamHouse)亚洲项目负责人及欧洲中国研究咨询网络(ECRAN)负责人凯瑞•布朗，文章内容仅代表其个人观点，与欧盟无关。

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oblivion
2011-9-23 02:29:12
to quote Admiral Ackbar, "it's a trap!!"
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muhouxiaotian
2011-9-23 07:56:32
能力有限，确实不知道，该说什么，有先入为主的理论所指引，先跟着大师走，过段时间再看风景吧。  
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ddovels
2011-9-23 09:29:19
老蒋不是说过么，攘外必先安内。如今国内都是困难重重，党所要做的必定是安定好国民的情绪。巨额的美国国债随着人民币的加速增值蒸发完是迟早的事，但我们已经做了多次的怨大头了，姑且不论这让西方人对中国的好感有何提升，但遇到麻烦找中国慷慨解囊到是成了上上之策。
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evanary
2011-9-23 09:30:33
排版有问题，有些单词连起来了，看着很费劲
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