流动性褪去后 重回业绩主导 —2007年1月宏观经济月报

中信证券 02.06 27页　pdf

目 录
一、理性对待顺差 调整步骤需平稳·······················1
1、理性对待贸易顺差·····························1
2、货币信贷继续趋稳····························4
3、CPI 短期大幅上涨 小幅加息预期增加·······7
4、持续增长,业绩稳定······························10
5、利润将向中下游转移··························13
二、不必过分担忧的流动性过剩···························15
1、何为“流动性”？ ································15
2、全球流动性此消彼长·······················16
3、中国在2006 年的流动性较以前偏紧·······16
三、重解‘流动性’迷题································18
附件：近期主要国民经济指标运行情况···············20