keensword 发表于 2012-11-28 11:14 
那你说说股指期货和现货价格应该是个什么关系。
Futures price=Spot price+carrying cost-carrying income. For stock index futures, carrying cost is mainly financing cost and the income is the dividend payment of the component stocks. Since there are usually hundreds of stocks within an index, we can regard the dividend payment as continuous. So that
F=S*exp((r-q)*T) works. Where, F is the futures price, S is the index, r is your financing cost, usually the riskfree rate, q is the annul dividend rate paid by the index's component stocks. T is the time to maturity.
If the futures price is higher than this, you can do the carrying arbitrage.
Anyway, my point is that, the futures price does not depend on a "model". It is model free. Perhaps the pricing is not so accurate but you don't need a model. If you really want to say a model, I can only say the "cost of carrying model" which is mentioned above.