Date: 03/12/07 Time: 16:10

Sample (adjusted): 1982 2004

Included observations: 23 after adjustments

Trend assumption: Linear deterministic trend (restricted)

Series: XF Y

Lags interval (in first differences): 1 to 1

Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)

Hypothesized

Trace

0.05

No. of CE(s)

Eigenvalue

Statistic

Critical Value

Prob.**

None *

0.851192

49.06428

25.87211

0.0000

At most 1

0.203978

5.246962

12.51798

0.5613

Trace test indicates 1 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level

* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level

**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values

Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue)

Hypothesized

Max-Eigen

0.05

No. of CE(s)

Eigenvalue

Statistic

Critical Value

Prob.**

None *

0.851192

43.81731

19.38704

0.0000

At most 1

0.203978

5.246962

12.51798

0.5613

Max-eigenvalue test indicates 1 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level

* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level

**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values

Unrestricted Cointegrating Coefficients (normalized by b'*S11*b=I):

XF

Y

@TREND(81)

-0.041842

0.024648

0.629903

-0.011335

0.008725

-0.230154

Unrestricted Adjustment Coefficients (alpha):

D(XF)

50.34546

-15.61782

D(Y)

32.96275

-23.96608

1 Cointegrating Equation(s):

Log likelihood

-213.9005

Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)

XF

Y

@TREND(81)

1.000000

-0.589062

-15.05426

(0.01075)

(1.32604)

Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)

D(XF)

-2.106562

(0.38861)

D(Y)

-1.379233

(0.52628)