Date: 04/10/09   Time: 13:51     
Sample (adjusted): 1989 2005     
Included observations: 17 after adjustments     
Trend assumption: Linear deterministic trend     
Series: Y X1 X2 X3 X4      
Lags interval (in first differences): 1 to 1     
     
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)     
     
Hypothesized  Trace 0.05  
No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.** 
     
None *  0.889663  106.0889  69.81889  0.0000 
At most 1 *  0.861430  68.61728  47.85613  0.0002 
At most 2 *  0.752249  35.01879  29.79707  0.0114 
At most 3  0.437309  11.29813  15.49471  0.1938 
At most 4  0.085678  1.522726  3.841466  0.2172 
     
 Trace test indicates 3 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level     
 * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level     
 **MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values     
     
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue)     
     
Hypothesized  Max-Eigen 0.05  
No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.** 
     
None *  0.889663  37.47165  33.87687  0.0178 
At most 1 *  0.861430  33.59849  27.58434  0.0075 
At most 2 *  0.752249  23.72066  21.13162  0.0211 
At most 3  0.437309  9.775404  14.26460  0.2271 
At most 4  0.085678  1.522726  3.841466  0.2172 
     
 Max-eigenvalue test indicates 3 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level     
 * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level     
 **MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values     
     
 Unrestricted Cointegrating Coefficients (normalized by b'*S11*b=I):      
     
Y X1 X2 X3 X4 
-48.93210 -36.80767  24.69711  271.5674  11.98443 
 44.41237 -9.612724 -10.59804 -35.22254  0.804325 
-88.15405 -5.199636  27.33565  315.4090 -5.271757 
-37.47630  15.70507 -14.32086  57.23510  10.32237 
 3.371111  18.41704 -36.27611  17.89335  15.21434 
     
     
 Unrestricted Adjustment Coefficients (alpha):      
     
D(Y) -0.003111  0.007011  0.006977  0.002243 -0.000287
D(X1)  0.030623  0.016611  0.022862 -0.021255  0.003159
D(X2) -0.019141  0.019655  0.019562 -0.015822  0.001146
D(X3)  0.000150  0.002892 -0.002493  0.000678 -0.000155
D(X4) -0.054509  0.022301  0.052638 -0.021391  0.011679
     
     
1 Cointegrating Equation(s):   Log likelihood  231.3555  
     
Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)     
Y X1 X2 X3 X4 
 1.000000  0.752219 -0.504722 -5.549882 -0.244920 
  (0.10009)  (0.10164)  (0.39664)  (0.05074) 
     
Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)     
D(Y)  0.152220    
  (0.18007)    
D(X1) -1.498459    
  (0.73902)    
D(X2)  0.936595    
  (0.61708)    
D(X3) -0.007321    
  (0.06800)    
D(X4)  2.667261    
  (1.31913)    
     
     
2 Cointegrating Equation(s):   Log likelihood  248.1548  
     
Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)     
Y X1 X2 X3 X4 
 1.000000  0.000000 -0.298085 -1.855962 -0.040662 
   (0.06631)  (0.26175)  (0.05062) 
 0.000000  1.000000 -0.274703 -4.910695 -0.271540 
   (0.10986)  (0.43370)  (0.08388) 
     
Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)     
D(Y)  0.463605  0.047106   
  (0.19410)  (0.11174)   
D(X1) -0.760735 -1.286845   
  (0.93572)  (0.53868)   
D(X2)  1.809514  0.515588   
  (0.72511)  (0.41743)   
D(X3)  0.121140 -0.033311   
  (0.06913)  (0.03980)   
D(X4)  3.657683  1.791996   
  (1.71943)  (0.98985)   
     
     
3 Cointegrating Equation(s):   Log likelihood  260.0151  
     
Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)     
Y X1 X2 X3 X4 
 1.000000  0.000000  0.000000 -103.5389  8.228495 
    (17.3446)  (1.28211) 
 0.000000  1.000000  0.000000 -98.61725  7.348957 
    (16.2365)  (1.20020) 
 0.000000  0.000000  1.000000 -341.1199  27.74089 
    (58.6394)  (4.33464) 
     
Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)     
D(Y) -0.151429  0.010829  0.039581  
  (0.21363)  (0.07445)  (0.07433)  
D(X1) -2.776130 -1.405720  1.205217  
  (1.34139)  (0.46748)  (0.46673)  
D(X2)  0.085069  0.413874 -0.146291  
  (0.99850)  (0.34798)  (0.34742)  
D(X3)  0.340923 -0.020348 -0.095112  
  (0.07575)  (0.02640)  (0.02636)  
D(X4) -0.982604  1.518296 -0.143664  
  (2.20330)  (0.76787)  (0.76663)  
     
     
4 Cointegrating Equation(s):   Log likelihood  264.9028  
     
Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)     
Y X1 X2 X3 X4 
 1.000000  0.000000  0.000000  0.000000 -0.456728 
     (0.01309) 
 0.000000  1.000000  0.000000  0.000000 -0.923422 
     (0.01866) 
 0.000000  0.000000  1.000000  0.000000 -0.873509 
     (0.02885) 
 0.000000  0.000000  0.000000  1.000000 -0.083884 
     (0.00336) 
     
Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)     
D(Y) -0.235470  0.046048  0.007467  1.237141 
  (0.21001)  (0.07487)  (0.07385)  (0.76086) 
D(X1) -1.979577 -1.739529  1.509605  13.72562 
  (1.18141)  (0.42114)  (0.41544)  (4.28010) 
D(X2)  0.678020  0.165388  0.080294 -0.625918 
  (0.87940)  (0.31348)  (0.30924)  (3.18596) 
D(X3)  0.315528 -0.009705 -0.104816 -0.808835 
  (0.07603)  (0.02710)  (0.02673)  (0.27544) 
D(X4) -0.180944  1.182347  0.162676 -0.210170 
  (2.19011)  (0.78072)  (0.77014)  (7.93452) 
     
     
这个结果显示的是不是存在这样的协整关系：y=-0.752219x1+0.504722x2+5.549882x3+0.244920x4

协整向量下括号里数字表示的是什么啊？？？

希望高人能指点一下