各位大神,真心向你们求助啊。小弟在用VAR模型对股价、M1、利率和CPI的分析,用的是月度数据,在选择滞后期是,Eviews5个标准给出了不同的滞后期推荐,请问我应该按少数服从多数选择7还是按一般月度数据的惯例选12呢?真心很困惑,求大家解答
输出结果如下:
| VAR Lag Order Selection  Criteria |   |   |   |   | 
| Endogenous variables:  DLNSP DLNM1 DLNCPI IR  |   |   |   | 
| Exogenous variables:  C  |   |   |   |   | 
| Date: 08/24/12   Time: 20:20 |   |   |   |   | 
| Sample: 2001M01 2012M06 |   |   |   |   | 
| Included observations:  125 |   |   |   |   | 
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 
|  Lag | LogL | LR | FPE | AIC | SC | HQ | 
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 
| 0 |  840.4483 | NA  |  1.81e-11 | -13.38317 | -13.29267 | -13.34641 | 
| 1 |  1075.593 |  451.4786 |  5.43e-13 | -16.88949 |  -16.43696* | -16.70566 | 
| 2 |  1102.196 |  49.37398 |  4.59e-13 | -17.05913 | -16.24458 |  -16.72822* | 
| 3 |  1119.605 |  31.19762 |  4.50e-13 | -17.08168 | -15.90510 | -16.60370 | 
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| 7 |  1186.241 |  27.18544 |   4.45e-13* |  -17.12386* | -14.49919 | -16.05760 | 
| 8 |  1194.243 |  11.77830 |  5.14e-13 | -16.99589 | -14.00919 | -15.78255 | 
| 9 |  1211.967 |  24.95555 |  5.11e-13 | -17.02347 | -13.67475 | -15.66306 | 
| 10 |  1222.504 |  14.16149 |  5.74e-13 | -16.93606 | -13.22532 | -15.42858 | 
| 11 |  1235.185 |  16.23192 |  6.26e-13 | -16.88296 | -12.81019 | -15.22841 | 
| 12 |  1260.753 |   31.09089* |  5.60e-13 | -17.03605 | -12.60126 | -15.23443 | 
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 
|   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 
|  * indicates lag  order selected by the criterion |   |   |   | 
|  LR: sequential  modified LR test statistic (each test at 5% level) |   |   | 
|  FPE: Final  prediction error |   |   |   |   | 
|  AIC: Akaike  information criterion |   |   |   |   | 
|  SC: Schwarz  information criterion |   |   |   |   | 
|  HQ: Hannan-Quinn  information criterion |   |   |   | 
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