各位大神,诚心求助啊。小弟用VAR模型做一个月度数据的研究分析,当用Eviews确定模型滞后期的时候,不同的标准给出了不同的答案,我究竟是应该选7还是选12呢?表格如下:
| VAR Lag Order Selection Criteria | | | | |
| Endogenous variables: DLNSP DLNM1 DLNCPI IR | | | |
| Exogenous variables: C | | |
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| Sample: 2001M01 2012M06 | | | | |
| Included observations: 125 | | | | |
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| Lag | LogL | LR | FPE | AIC | SC | HQ |
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| 0 | 840.4483 | NA | 1.81e-11 | -13.38317 | -13.29267 | -13.34641 |
| 1 | 1075.593 | 451.4786 | 5.43e-13 | -16.88949 | -16.43696* | -16.70566 |
| 2 | 1102.196 | 49.37398 | 4.59e-13 | -17.05913 | -16.24458 | -16.72822* |
| 3 | 1119.605 | 31.19762 | 4.50e-13 | -17.08168 | -15.90510 | -16.60370 |
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| 7 | 1186.241 | 27.18544 | 4.45e-13* | -17.12386* | -14.49919 | -16.05760 |
| 8 | 1194.243 | 11.77830 | 5.14e-13 | -16.99589 | -14.00919 | -15.78255 |
| 9 | 1211.967 | 24.95555 | 5.11e-13 | -17.02347 | -13.67475 | -15.66306 |
| 10 | 1222.504 | 14.16149 | 5.74e-13 | -16.93606 | -13.22532 | -15.42858 |
| 11 | 1235.185 | 16.23192 | 6.26e-13 | -16.88296 | -12.81019 | -15.22841 |
| 12 | 1260.753 | 31.09089* | 5.60e-13 | -17.03605 | -12.60126 | -15.23443 |
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| * indicates lag order selected by the criterion | | | |
| LR: sequential modified LR test statistic (each test at 5% level) | | |
| FPE: Final prediction error | | | | |
| AIC: Akaike information criterion | | | | |
| SC: Schwarz information criterion | | | | |
| HQ: Hannan-Quinn information criterion | | | |
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