英国《金融时报》LEX专栏 2008-12-15

外国资金继续逃离亚洲。

EFPR Global的数据显示，在截止12月3日的一年，亚洲（除日本外）基金净流出资金达130亿美元，而上年同期净流入100亿美元。台湾和韩国受冲击最大。今年以来，外国人净卖出约220亿美元的韩国蓝筹股。同期内，摩根士丹利资本国际不包括日本的亚太指数(MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan index)按美元计下跌了54%，重返2004年8月时的水平——当时，风险规避还很少见，亚洲经济增长被认为是明摆着的。

世界早就变了。以汇丰银行(HSBC)的CLOG指数来衡量，风险规避较10月末的峰值水平有所减轻，但幅度甚微。衰退已攫住包括新加坡在内的一些经济体，还有更多经济体将会跟随。外国基金仍在平仓，逃向安全港。孟买的恐怖袭击，泰国主要机场遭围攻，均提醒着世人：亚洲绝非祥和之地。各国政府和央行无力扭转局面。至少半打的财政刺激方案和大刀阔斧地的息，都几乎未能打动投资者。

一些看涨人士并未被吓住，他们侦察到亚洲股市的底部。总体而言，亚洲企业负债轻于西方同行。企业盈利应会受益于贷款成本下降、减税（这是财政措施的一部分）以及石油和其它大宗商品价格下跌。人们的普遍预期是：摩根士丹利不包括日本的亚太指数的成分股公司明年收益将增长近6%。按当前水平来看，股价确实显得便宜。预期市盈率为8.7倍，回到1991年的水平。唉，可是抛售还在继续，说明机会并不怎么诱人。道理很简单：在世界病怏怏的时候，投资于依赖全球需求扩张的企业无疑是大胆的。

Foreign funds continue to flee from Asia. Net outflows from Asian ex-Japan funds reached $13bn for the year to December 3, according to EFPR Global, compared to $10bn of inflows over the same period last year. Taiwan and Korea are taking the biggest hits. Foreigners have sold some net $22bn of Korean blue-chips so far this year. Meanwhile, the MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan index, down 54 per cent so far this year in US dollar terms, is back to levels last seen in August 2004 – a time when risk aversion was almost alien and Asian economic growth was taken as axiomatic.

That world has long gone. Risk aversion, as measured by HSBC's CLOG Index, is off its late October peak, but only fractionally so. Recession has already claimed some economies, including Singapore, and more will follow. Foreign funds are still liquidating positions and fleeing for safe havens. The terrorist attacks in Mumbai, and the siege of Thailand's main airport have reminded the world that Asia is anything but a safe haven. Governments and central banks have been unable to turn the tide. At least half a dozen fiscal stimulus packages and a swathe of interest rate cuts have barely registered with investors

Undeterred, some bulls spy a floor to Asian equity markets. Asian companies in general have less debt than their western peers. Corporate earnings should benefit from lower borrowing costs, tax relief (as part of the fiscal measures) and cheaper oil and other commodities. The consensus is for MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan earnings to increase almost 6 per cent next year. On current numbers, stocks certainly look cheap. The forward price/earnings multiple, at 8.7 times, is back at 1991 levels. Alas, continued selling suggests this offers little enticement. The bottom line is simple: when the world is sickly, investing in companies that depend on expanding global demand is bold.