Nomura-20090622-20页-英文-Global Strategy Weekly-Consolidation, correction or cause for concern

We do not think the recent mini-correction in global equities is the portent of a
more serious decline.
􀂄 Firstly, the drop in risk appetite evident in the equity market is not apparent in other
assets – credit markets in particular have been very well behaved, while implied
volatility and the yen exchange rate suggest benign risk conditions prevail.
􀂄 Secondly, cyclical indicators such as the Baltic Freight Index and commodity
prices continue to rise, while analysts have recently been upgrading slightly more
estimates than they have been cutting.
􀂄 While issuance may be a dampening influence in the short term, we doubt it will
have a more lasting effect given the still very high levels of cash held, and the still
rather encouraging reception received in secondary markets for both corporate
equity and debt when new issues occur.
􀂄 Lastly, and perhaps most importantly of all, there is evidence that the aggressive
policy actions taken by the authorities have had a simulative effect on the fabled
animal spirits.
􀂄 Even in the most leveraged economies, and in those markets most affected by the
withdrawal of credit, there are signs the buyers are returning. This is crucially
important because while policymakers can attempt to influence private sector
decisions, they cannot guarantee a response.
􀂄 In short, we think this recent pull-back in the equity market is just that, and we
expect the uptrend to resume again soon.