Table of Contents
Investment case........................................................................3
Bottoming out of economy favors consumer stocks ....................................................3
Investment ideas ..........................................................................................................4
Introducing a scoring system to rank consumer blue chips..........................................4
Valuation ...................................................................................6
DCF models inputs and results ....................................................................................6
Comparables analysis...................................................................................................7
Analysis of trailing PERs...........................................................................................10
Risks to our view....................................................................12
Top-down sector drivers........................................................13
Macro backdrop .........................................................................................................13
Food retail..................................................................................................................14
Dairy and baby food...................................................................................................15
Pharma .......................................................................................................................16
Company Analysis .................................................................17
Magnit......................................................................................18
Raising target price for local share to $50 .................................................................18
Business overview and outlook..................................................................................19
Estimate changes........................................................................................................23
X5.............................................................................................25
Raising target price for GDR to $18 ..........................................................................25
Business overview and outlook..................................................................................26
Estimate changes........................................................................................................31
Wimm-Bill-Dann......................................................................33
Raising target price for ADR to $70 ..........................................................................33
Business overview and outlook..................................................................................34
Estimate changes........................................................................................................38
Pharmstandard .......................................................................40
Downgrading GDR to UW from N; maintain N on local share.................................40
Business overview and outlook..................................................................................41
Estimate changes........................................................................................................45
Valuation Methodology and Risks ........................................47