【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月欧洲制药行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根大通
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：60
        【目录或简介】：

model, and general concerns about the economy have been weighing on
multiples in the pharma sector during 2009. During this time, our
Embedded Value (EmV) methodology, that yields a “rock-bottom”
valuation (e.g. excluding any consideration for a Terminal Value) has
proved a good tool to spot attractive entry points into our stocks. Our 2009
price targets were based on the Embedded Value for all of our companies.
• Clouds are lifting: US Healthcare reform is still not finalised, but the
impact on pharmaceutical companies is most likely moderate. Most
companies have been shown to be fairly recession resistant and pharma
companies have started to address investors’ concerns about the
sustainability of the pharma business model by highlighting
diversification towards non-traditional growth drivers (such as consumerrelated
assets and more emphasis on emerging markets) and providing
selected data points to help investors model post-patent cliff earnings
power. 2009 even had some positive surprises from pharma pipelines.
• As fundamentals and sentiment are improving, we think that
attributing zero Terminal Value to pharma businesses is no longer
appropriate. For consumer businesses the Terminal Value adds 40-80%
upside to the value of 2010-2023E free cash flows. To capture
improving fundamentals and sentiment we now set our new 2010
year-end price targets based on 2010 EmV +10%. AZN remains the
only company which in our view hasn’t addressed the issue of
sustainability, thus we still value AZN based on EmV only.
• We see significant absolute upside from current levels for all
European large caps, but we see more upside for the Swiss companies
(Roche and Novartis) and Bayer in the 30-50% range, with only 10-12%
upside for the UK names (AZN and GSK). Sanofi remains the value call in
the sector offering 25% potential upside.
• New 2010 Price Targets: AZN £29.60 (from £30), GSK £13.50 (£10.50),
Novartis SFr 69 (SFr 61), Roche SFr 237 (SFr 195) Sanofi