1.主题
An In-Depth Look at Deleveraging系列(二)—(五)
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIzODg2NDQyMA==&mid=2247484197&idx=1&sn=690e0c98aeda6c1c56f2d420dce8055a&chksm=e933926ede441b782e8447e6045859b0df2a5e2a9bfe7b9665dd99e13e23be5f75d9ceb52d3e&scene=21#wechat_redirect
2.摘要
针对去杠杆的效果,有三种:
1) “ugly deflationary deleveragings”
which occurred before enough money was “printed” and deflationary contractions existed and when nominal interest rates were above nominal growth rates;
As shown below, in all of these cases:
a) money printing was limited,
b) nominal growth was below nominal rates,
c) the currency was generally strong,
d) the debt/income ratios rose because of the combination of interest payment costs and nominal incomes falling or stagnating.
典型案例就是日本失落的20年~~
2) “beautiful deleveragings”
those in which enough “printing” occurred to balance the deflationary forces of debt reduction and austerity in a manner in which there is positive growth, a falling debt/income ratio and nominal GDP growth above nominal interest rates;
3) “ugly inflationary deleveragings”
in which the “printing” is large relative to the deflationary forces and nominal growth through monetary inflation and interest rates are in a self-reinforcing upward spiral;
运用因素分解法:
Income changes are broken into
(1) real income changes and (2) inflation.
——>收入 = 实际收入 + 通胀
Changes in nominal debt levels are broken into (3) defaults, (4) the amount of new borrowing required just to make interest payments, and (5) whatever increases or decreases in borrowing that occur beyond that.
——>名义债务 = 违约量 + 新增贷款(用以偿还旧债的利息) + 其他新增债务
这样一来,debt/GDP的公式就被成功肢解了!
承认存在问题——正视自己的错误2、活在当下——亏的钱已经亏了,现在的投资组合最重要3、你不是失败者——所与人在股市里都亏过钱,你只是犯下了投资错误4、承担责任——勇敢肩负目前的责任5、摸清市场变化,包括利率及货币风险,地缘政治乃至经济挑战——在不断变化的环境中,购买并按兵不动,真的有意义吗?长期投资者也要适应环境变化6、寻求帮助——不要害怕求助,一点咨询成本总比亏损要好7、逐渐作出改变——投资组合应该更多地进行微调,而不是翻天覆地的变革8、制定合适的策略——你是为退休做打算,还是准备买房?不同时长的投资目标对应了不同的策略9、了解自己的投资策略——防止自己受到情绪化因素的影响10、投资是为未来做打算——今天照常努力赚钱,投资是在为明天做打算——Lance Roberts
5⃣️阅读感受:
利用周末畅快阅读,很久没有这样酣畅淋漓的感受了。不管未来能获得什么,好的阅读体验也已经足以受用。继续坚持。
6⃣️三月计划按序进行。