【出版时间及名称】：2009年12月美国银行业研究报告
        【作者】：OPPENHEIMER
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：56
        【目录或简介】：
The Storm Before the
Calm?
Preview with Spotlight on Trading
SUMMARY
We have been saying since our 3Q09 preview that we expect 4Q09 to be a
clean-up quarter. We mean this not just in the sense of special charges that impact
earnings, of which there will be plenty, but also in the sense that in order to get as
much "reserve building" out of the way in 2009 as possible the companies will be
very aggressive in classifying problem assets and this will likely make asset quality
trends look poor. To this mix we now add reduced loan volume expectations for
2010 and a more pronounced than normal seasonal slowdown in trading.
KEY POINTS
n We are trimming our 2010 estimates almost across the board with only Lazard
untouched. At the investment banks the trims are fairly modest and driven
mainly by the fact that our 2010 trading estimates were derived off full-year
2009 estimates, and with these somewhat diminished it has a modest
pull-through effect on 2010. We are also trimming our price targets based on our
reduced estimates.
n At the commercial banks, our estimate revisions are being driven by lower loan
volume assumptions (which drove a roughly 3% reduction in our pre-provision
earnings estimates) and the assumption that loan losses will remain at their
peak 4Q09 levels for two quarters rather than one. This latter change stemmed
from sloppy November master trust data.
n We view the 4Q09 slowdown in trading as seasonal and believe it has negligible
implications for the underlying health of trading businesses, which we consider
quite strong. In this report we take an extensive look at long-term trends in the
business, which indicate that 2009 results are not far off trendline.
n We continue to believe that investment banking and trading businesses are
likely to do well in 2010. M&A is just beginning to rebound, enormous financing
needs remain, and concern about the sustainability of trading profits (which is
reflected more in the single-digit P/E multiples than in earnings estimates) is
overdone.
n Loan volume and NPA inflow trends will be poor for several more quarters, but
historically such times have been good for bank stocks.