【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月美国银行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：74
        【目录或简介】：

Midcap Banks
Fundamentals Likely to
Improve, but Valuations
Stretched Going into 1Q10
We remain constructive but would recommend a
cautious stance heading into 1Q10 earnings. We
are becoming more concerned that midcap bank
valuations have overshot the anticipated improvement in
fundamentals. We still like the group overall, but given
its material outperformance YTD (up 22% and
outperforming the S&P 500 by 15 percentage points),
we question if the bank stocks have gotten somewhat
ahead of themselves as investors build in credit
improvements that will likely take several more quarters
to be realized. Reported results may offer insights on
how quickly banks can improve profitability and return to
more normalized earnings — and that could help
determine whether this rally is justified… or not.
What to expect from 1Q10 earnings: We expect solid
declines in both credit losses and provision expenses for
the midcap banks overall, modest reserve build given
aggressive actions taken in 2009 to recognize credit
losses, and further NIM expansion (up 7 bps Q/Q to
3.60%). However, loan balances are likely to decline
further (but at a decelerating pace) while fee income
should experience its typical seasonal decline.
Valuations appear stretched, near term: Despite our
positive long-term view on the banks, we expect the
group to trade lower into earnings as investor
expectations seem to have outpaced the improvement
in the underlying fundamentals. We recommend more
of a cautious stance heading into the quarter given what
appear to be fairly lofty expectations.
Recommendations: For the quarter, we recommend
owning banks that have seen less of the euphoric buying,
such as HCBK and PBCT, and are still trading at
reasonable valuations. However, our top picks over the
long-term remain CMA and ZION as they benefit from
both improving credit trends and higher rates. We are
Underweight CFR, PRSP, and WABC on valuation.