【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月美国银行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根大通
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：43
        【目录或简介】：


Weekly Bank Failure Friday Rundown: Our Failure Friday Rundown is a weekly,
“war room”-type report intended to provide investors with the information and
analysis necessary to construct a portfolio of bank stocks positioned to take advantage
of the FDIC deal window. This past week the FDIC announced problem list increased
to 702 and Chairman Sheila Bair indicated that the pace of bank failures may pick up
in the balance of 2010. As such, the pipeline for failures appears very strong in 2010.
• 2 Banks Failed on Feb. 26; YTD failures: 22, with 5 from WA/OR. On Friday
evening the FDIC closed two institutions in NV and WA, both of which had
buyers. Average assets acquired this week stood at $354.1 million. Failures
included: (1) Carson City, NV-based Carson River Community Bank which was
acquired by Reno, NV-based Heritage Bank of Nevada; and (2) Tacoma, WAbased
Rainier Pacific Bank which was acquired by Roseburg, OR-based Umpqua
Bank, in its second FDIC-assisted transaction this year. This failure marks the fifth
of 22 YTD in the WA/OR market, or nearly 25% of failures so far this year.
• Weekly Enforcement Actions: Five written agreements were announced by the
Fed this week, including 3 in CA, and one each in CO and IL. The two largest
institutions are IL-based Mercantile Bancorp with $1.7 billion in assets and CAbased
Heritage Commerce Corp. with $1.4 billion in assets (see page 2).
• Updated 4Q09 Texas Ratios: South Carolina, Tennessee and Texas Move up
the List. We recently updated Texas ratios for 4Q09 (enclosed in this report) and
found several interesting trends. Consistent with the increase in problem banks on
the FDIC problem list, there are 222 banks with TX ratios > 100% vs. 212 last
quarter, with total assets of $277 billion. As of 4Q, there are 328 with TX ratios
>75% vs. 306 in 3Q09. South Carolina had the greatest increase in institutions
with Texas ratios in excess of 100%, going from 4 to 9 and Tennessee also
increased from 5 to 8, suggesting a wider pipeline of deals for stronger SE banks –
a plus for First Horizon, in our coverage. Texas also increased from 2 to 6
institutions. Minnesota declined from 7 to 4 and Washington declined from 12 to
9, although still among the highest in the nation. FL, IL and GA remain the top
three states with the highest number of institutions (see page 6 for complete list).
• FDIC Deals a Long-Term Value Creation Opportunity, in Our View. UMPQ
completed its second FDIC deal of 2010. Demonstrating the competitiveness of
the bidding, UMPQ paid modestly above fair value, given the strategic importance
of Rainier (see our note on UMPQ also published today for details). Investors
appear to have become increasingly skeptical of the value proposition offered from
FDIC acquisitions and many have taken a “buy them on Friday and sell them on
Monday” approach. We believe that rather than view the strategy as a trading
opportunity, we encourage investors to not lose sight of the long-term value
creation that comes from assuming deposits at a fraction of the historical
acquisition cost. Names we recommend are CYN, MBFI, FMER, PBCT and
UMPQ given market positioning and managements' willingness to pursue deals.
We believe it is the banks that will have transformed their deposit franchise that
will be the long-term winners post the crisis.