【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月美国银行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根大通
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：83
        【目录或简介】：

U.S. Mid-Cap Banks
Market Expectations Seem Aligned for What's In Store
for 4Q: NPAs to Grow, NCOs Mixed, NIM Up Bias
Mid-Cap Banks
Steven Alexopoulos, CFAAC
(1-212) 622-6041
steven.a.alexopoulos@jpmchase.com
Preeti S Dixit
(1-212) 622-9864
preeti.s.dixit@jpmchase.com
Renee H Park
(1-212) 622-6718
renee.h.park@jpmchase.com
J.P. Morgan Securities Inc.
See page 70 for analyst certification and important disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
Although we expect credit trends to remain highly stressed for the regional bank sector
in the fourth quarter, overall we think market expectations have been appropriately set
heading into 4Q following 3Q results, which included NCOs reaching a level above
the 1990 peak. In 4Q we look for NCOs to remain mixed as some banks benefit from
the absence of SNC-related credit actions on a linked quarter basis, while others take
advantage of the opportunity to scrub the decks before heading into the New Year.
One positive will be that an upward bias to NIMs in 3Q (tied to continued run-off of
higher cost CDs at many banks) should continue in 4Q. This benefit is being limited in
part by excess liquidity creation as deposit inflows are being parked in short-term
investments since loan balances are expected to decline for a second consecutive
quarter. Given positive stock reactions recently from acquiring banks to FDIC deals,
we suspect an increased appetite for such deals to make its way into call commentary.
?Fundamental trends will likely be an extension of 3Q. This quarter we are
looking for 8 of 22 banks to report losses versus 11 of 22 last quarter. 13 banks are
expected to beat, 4 to be in line, and 5 to miss Street estimates. In terms of key
fundamentals, we look for the following: (1) similar to 3Q, NIM to be flat with an
upward bias, given 19 of 22 banks are expected to see stable to rising NIMs; (2)
changes in NCO ratio are expected to be mixed; (3) NPA growth of 10%
consistent with the 9% reported last quarter; (4) reserves to be built in tandem with
NPA growth; (5) loan growth expected to be negative; (6) still-strong deposit
inflows; and (7) the median TCE ratio to increase from 7% to 7.89% helped by
$1.8 billion in capital raised by our universe this quarter.
?Absent many actionable trading ideas around 4Q results, we would start
positioning for 2010: more return potential on the long side than short. With
capital buffers strengthened for 2/3 of our coverage heading into 2010, the credit
cycle expected to reach later innings, and economic growth expected, we now
have a positive bias toward regional bank equities in 2010, which is a 180-degree
turn from our negative 2009 call. In positioning portfolios for 2010, we would own
a basket of banks well positioned to capitalize on "once in a generation" type
returns on FDIC-assisted deals. We would also position in banks with leverage to a
stabilizing economy, and more importantly leverage to rising interest rates. Areas
that we are cautious on in 1H10 are below-TBV stocks that appear cheap on
normal EPS but could be value traps, and those still thin on TCE.
?Names to own: CMA, CYN, CFR, FMER, MBFI, PBCT, UMPQ; cautious on
value traps: MI, ZION, SNV, SUSQ. We would buy a basket of FMER, MBFI,
PBCT, and UMPQ and believe these banks are likely to aggressively pursue FDIC
deals in 2010. Not only are all of these banks well positioned from a markets and a
financial strength perspective, but management teams appear motivated to pursue
opportunities. In the backdrop of a stabilizing economy, we believe the market will
start pricing in a growing probability of rising rates through 2010 and, therefore,
would increase positions in CMA, CYN, and CFR, all strong beneficiaries of
rising rates. We would limit positions in names that appear cheap but are expected
to deliver deep bottom line losses in 1H10, including MI, ZION, and SNV, or
remain thin on TCE: SUSQ and ZION.