【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月美国银行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：31
        【目录或简介】：
Summary
We remain positive on bank stocks even though we expect most banks to again report a loss
in 1Q and expectations have increased in recent months (given the 1700bps relative move in
bank stocks since mid December). While relative upside may be less going forward, we think
there are several positive macro and bank specific trends that may drive the stocks higher.
Our top pick is WFC. We also have Buy ratings on BBT, C, HBAN JPM, PNC, and USB.
Below, we also discuss why we are less favorable on BAC than most.
Why we remain positive on bank stocks
Positive bank trends include further improvement in net interest margins and credit, the bulk
of capital raises being behind us, and hopefully an inflection in commercial loan demand at
some point this year. In the meantime, banks continued to add to the carry trade (i.e. buying
fixed rate securities funded short)—which helps net interest revenue for now (although could
prove to be a big drag to banks when/if interest rates eventually rise). And while we think
macro risks remain (especially related to real estate and the US gov’t spending gap), we don’t
expect these to be issues in the near term.
Looking out to 2011 and beyond, no matter how the US elections play out, it seems
inevitable that taxes will rise, gov’t spending will decline and interest rates (and mortgage
spreads) will increase—which collectively doesn’t seem like a good environment for bank
stocks. But for now, we would argue we’re in a sweet spot for the stocks—with most trends
moving in the right direction.
In terms of valuations, bank stocks trade at about 9x normalized EPS—which we think
represents about fair value on estimated normal EPS in 2012 (using a P/E of 12x 2012 est,
discounted back 2 years at a 15% annual discount rate). We use such a high discount rate
given our macro concerns noted above. So, while we view bank stocks as being fairly valued
now we would argue we are at the point in the cycle where they can trade above fair value
for a period of time.
WFC is our top pick
We think WFC is well position near and longer term. With the stock trading at about 8x our
normal EPS estimate (vs. 9x for the overall group), we think the valuation is very attractive.
􀂄 WFC is one of the biggest beneficiaries of the current environment. Near term, WFC
continues to be one of the largest beneficiaries of the current macro environment
(various gov’t housing, low interest rates, steep yield curve, etc). This reflects WFC’s
large mortgage origination business (which benefits from both a steep curve and still
strong originations), hedging activity in the mortgage servicing assets, a large pool of
mortgages that was aggressively written down when acquired from Wachovia and a
disciplined approach to managing interest rate risk in its securities book. WFC
consistently prunes low yielding securities when bonds rally and buys when bonds sell
off.
􀂄 Most of the Wachovia upside is still to come. Longer term, there will likely be large
upside from the Wachovia deal—including $3-4b of cost savings and likely some revenue
synergies in mortgage, card, and deposit pricing.
􀂄 Market share gains in the prime and below segments seem likely. WFC is well
positioned to gain market share from other banks (such as BAC, C and JPM) that are
reducing/exiting the near prime and below (and in some instances prime) segment of a
number of products. Over the next few years, the number of consumers in these