【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月美国银行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：43
        【目录或简介】：
Banking - Large Cap
Banks
4Q09 Preview – Long
Consumer Skewed into Qtr
Investment conclusion: We expect 2009 to close on a
brighter note than it began for the large cap banks.
Macro indicators of credit quality – jobless claims,
capacity utilization, and industrial production – all
improved in 4Q supporting our expectation for slowing
NPL formation rates and lower reserve build. We expect
credit card losses to peak in 4Q09, and for aggregate
NPLs to peak in 1Q10. Less bad is good for the sector –
we expect slowing credit deterioration to be a positive
post earnings, especially for consumer-heavy stocks like
AXP, BAC, JPM. Expect processors to pick up post
earnings as NIM, sec lending margins begin to stabilize.
What's new: We are tweaking our 4Q09 estimates:
- Large Cap Banks – For the money center banks, we
are reducing trading revenues as margins normalize,
increasing investment banking fees from slightly
higher than expected flows, and forecasting net
write-ups on trading / AFS exposures, partially offset
by CVA adjustments. For the super-regional banks,
credit expectations are generally in-line with previous
forecasts. We are tweaking our NIM for PNC (down)
and KEY (up) due to trends seen in the quarter.
- Trust Banks – EPS tweaked down on lower FX trading
and sec lending margins, partially offset by higher
AUM/AUC growth, as market valuations improved
above our earlier forecast.
- Credit Card Companies – we are increasing AXP’s
4Q09 EPS due to lower NCO data than expected. We
are slightly lowering COF estimates due to higher
expected shrinkage in its card portfolio, and potential
pressure on its fee income lines.
Where we differ: We have an attractive view on the
large cap bank group. We are long early-cycle card and
consumer lenders (BAC, JPM, AXP), rate rise
beneficiaries (BK, NTRS) and banks that have
significant expected acquisition-driven earnings
accretion (WFC, PNC).