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2019-02-12
Yahoo Finance 选了几个失败的实例分析了股票回购的缺点。

对于投资者而言,外卖是要警惕大型回购计划。 “...最初的反应总体上是正面的,价格会有点上涨。 然后人们开始更多地思考这里发生了什么,企业如何在经济基础上而不是以管理数量为基础,“加州大学戴维斯分校管理研究生院教授保罗格里芬说。



IBM

BigBlue has spent some $80 billion in stock buybacks over the past decade. Since2014, the stock is down 27%, while the S&P 500 is up 47%. Legendaryinvestor Stan Druckenmiller spelled out the problem at CNBC’s DeliveringAlpha Conference in 2014:

“Iwould say IBM (IBM) is theposter child. They literally faced a threat not too dissimilar to what Kodak and Xerox [confronted],in terms of a new technology staring them right in the face. Instead ofincreasing investment to combat the threat, they've actually borrowed a lot ofmoney to buy back stock."

Forinvestors the takeaway is to be wary of big buyback programs. “...the initialresponse generally positive, get a little bump in price. Then people startthinking more about what’s going on here, how a firm is performing on an economicbasis rather than managed number basis,” says Paul Griffin, a professor at theUniversity of California, Davis Graduate School of Management.



在过去十年中,蓝色巨人已经花费了大约800亿美元的股票回购。 自2014年以来,该股票下跌了27%,而标准普尔500指数则上涨了47%。 传奇投资人Stan Druckenmiller在2014年CNBC的Delivering Alpha会议上阐述了这个问题:

“我会说IBM(IBM)是个孩子。 他们确实面临的威胁与柯达和施乐所面临的威胁并无太大不同,就新技术正面对他们而言。 他们实际上借了很多钱来回购股票,而不是增加投资来对抗这种威胁。“


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2019-2-12 00:01:59
General Electric
The woes of this once icon of American management know-how are now legend. A major facet are the company’s sorry buyback programs.
In a nutshell GE (GE) bought back over $40 billion of its stock over the past decade (some 15% of its market cap) at prices between $10 and $30. (At least half of the buying was done in the upper half of that range.) Today the stock trades for $9.
“Throughout the past decade, there is a high correlation between how expensive GE’s stock is versus current cash flows and how much stock the company repurchases,” write David Trainer and Sam McBride in New Constructs. ”By inefficiently utilizing valuable capital to buy back stock at inflated prices, the company destroyed value for long-term shareholders.”
这个曾经的美国管理知识偶像的困境现在已成为传奇。 一个主要方面是该公司的抱歉回购计划。

简而言之,通用电气(GE)在过去十年中回购了超过400亿美元的股票(约占其市值的15%),价格在10美元至30美元之间。 (至少有一半的买入是在该范围的上半部分完成的。)今天股票交易价格为9美元。

“在过去十年中,通用电气公司的股票与当前现金流的成本以及公司回购的股票数量之间存在高度相关性,”David Consiner和Sam McBride在New Constructs中写道。 “通过低效利用有价值的资本以高价回购股票,公司破坏了长期股东的价值。”
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2019-2-12 00:02:30
General Motors
The auto behemoth famously needed billions in government bailout funds during its bankruptcy filing in 2009. But not long before that it had billions in cash flow. Guess where much of the money went? Between 1986 and 2002 GM (GM) spent over $20 billion on stock buybacks.
Bloomberg notes that if GM had simply banked that $20 billion instead, “it would have had $35 billion in 2009 to stave off bankruptcy and respond to global competition.” GM stock prices back then? Shares peaked in April of 2000 at $93. It traded at $40 in 2007. Two years later the stock was delisted, essentially worthless.
这家汽车巨头在2009年破产申请期间需要数十亿美元的政府救助资金。但不久之前它就拥有数十亿美元的现金流。 猜猜这里有多少钱? 1986年至2002年间,通用汽车(GM)在股票回购上花费了200多亿美元。

彭博社指出,如果通用汽车公司只是将200亿美元存入银行,那么“它将在2009年获得350亿美元以避免破产并应对全球竞争。”当时的通用汽车股价是多少? 股票在2000年4月达到峰值,为93美元。 它在2007年交易价格为40美元。两年后该股票被摘牌,基本上没有价值。
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2019-2-12 00:05:04
Viacom

The erstwhile entertainment giant squandered its future by buying back stock and not investing in the business. It’s Paramount movie studio is a shadow of its former self and its TV networks like MTV and Nickelodeon are rickety.

According to Reuters: “Between October 2012 and March 2015, Viacom spent about $9.7 billion on buybacks, at an average cost of $73.58 per share, based on company filings - or about 55 percent more than the current stock price [on February 10, 2016].”

Over the past five years Viacom’s stock (VIA) has dropped over 65% (even taking into account a nice pop last month), versus a gain of 40% for rival Disney and 47% for the S&P 500. The stock currently trades for $29. At some point Viacom may make value investors rich, but they’ve been saying that for years.

这家昔日的娱乐巨头通过回购股票而不是投资该业务来浪费其未来。 它的派拉蒙影业工作室是其前身的影子,其电视网络如MTV和Nickelodeon则摇摇欲坠。

据路透社报道:“2012年10月至2015年3月期间,维亚康姆在回购上花费了约97亿美元,平均成本为每股73.58美元,基于公司提交的报告 - 比目前的股价高出约55%[2016年2月10日]]“。

在过去的五年里,维亚康姆的股票(VIA)下跌超过65%(上个月考虑到一个不错的流行音乐),而竞争对手迪斯尼的收益为40%,标准普尔500指数为47%。该股目前的交易价格为29美元。 在某些时候,维亚康姆可能会让价值投资者变得富裕,但他们多年来一直在说这些。
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2019-2-12 07:05:58
节日快乐~
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2019-2-15 07:18:06
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