【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月俄罗斯石油天然气行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：48
        【目录或简介】：
Table of Contents
Investment summary ........................................................................ 3
Deutsche Bank maintains unconventional view on 2010 Brent ................................................3
50:50 weighted DCF/target multiple valuation..........................................................................3
Risks ........................................................................................................................................3
Valuation and risks............................................................................ 4
Valuation methodology .............................................................................................................4
Application of APT-based DCF valuation...................................................................................5
Application of target multiples ..................................................................................................8
Calculation of target prices .......................................................................................................9
Sector investment outlook ............................................................. 11
Sector analysis: Crude oil vs. gas............................................................................................11
Preference switch from the oil sector to gas sector...............................................................12
Crude oil market outlook ................................................................ 15
2010: from financial to physical drivers...................................................................................15
Dollar to strengthen in 2010 = bearish oil forecast .................................................................18
Conclusion – we expect some weakness in oil prices in 2H10...............................................20
Forecast revisions............................................................................ 23
Revision of macro assumptions..............................................................................................23
Price assumptions...................................................................................................................24
Estimate revisions for oil companies ......................................................................................25
Novatek forecast changes ......................................................................................................26
Appendix A....................................................................................... 40
Valuation and risks for individual companies...........................................................................40