1# zsmtxws
    把你数据贴上来看看

非结构化的误差修正模型回归的参数比较多，一般要求样本足够大才行，时间序列数据最少要30年的才有意义

thank you very much

2# jisorc
我这是把我从统计年鉴上找到的数据，以下各列均是以上年=100然后求对数。

4.605170 4.605170 4.605170 4.605170 4.605170 4.715817 4.645352 4.605170 4.612146
4.588823 4.661585 4.700333 4.633319 4.630125 4.678421 4.671894 4.618411 4.624973
4.628715 4.627596 4.705654 4.592278 4.633557 4.680278 4.691348 4.617023 4.663439
4.560368 4.591670 4.664776 4.597168 4.591339 4.655863 4.684905 4.618924 4.628887
4.575564 4.641613 4.674078 4.659812 4.648300 4.692265 4.670958 4.620856 4.623992
4.596524 4.654824 4.705358 4.670272 4.667216 4.708629 4.683057 4.618401 4.620059
4.575604 4.628399 4.686670 4.693543 4.676236 4.746670 4.718499 4.618181 4.632785
4.600511 4.710485 4.909909 4.699376 4.683510 4.731803 4.731803 4.619386 4.689511
4.624515 4.638763 4.720383 4.634861 4.658099 4.689511 4.651099 4.620693 4.663439
4.601206 4.637275 4.748677 4.640203 4.674244 4.714921 4.663439 4.621711 4.675629
4.610643 4.624337 4.810621 4.653665 4.676068 4.712229 4.680278 4.620839 4.774913
4.583038 4.620549 4.712029 4.664325 4.646634 4.645352 4.603168 4.620170 4.768988
4.569751 4.612771 4.684864 4.627384 4.623256 4.642466 4.641502 4.619521 4.625953
4.615949 4.625039 4.746484 4.614003 4.655357 4.693181 4.687671 4.618118 4.633758
4.644261 4.624288 4.805537 4.627916 4.655775 4.737951 4.730039 4.616742 4.657763
4.674373 4.624287 4.865591 4.640014 4.665794 4.736198 4.685828 4.616592 4.729156
4.605189 4.623578 4.904457 4.671952 4.661685 4.728272 4.650144 4.616354 4.801559
4.618097 4.623590 4.826790 4.688402 4.671666 4.708629 4.680278 4.615719 4.743191
4.612806 4.653567 4.752433 4.632552 4.662730 4.700480 4.695011 4.615585 4.664382
4.605218 4.651019 4.699058 4.603616 4.596860 4.694096 4.649187 4.615226 4.613138
4.576864 4.649309 4.662519 4.541563 4.563803 4.680278 4.662495 4.614309 4.578826
4.595273 4.647155 4.657609 4.618640 4.617326 4.678421 4.684905 4.613352 4.574711
4.608648 4.645739 4.698661 4.629046 4.639845 4.685828 4.687671 4.612749 4.590057
4.588396 4.644157 4.698276 4.668752 4.638152 4.684905 4.660605 4.612121 4.597138
4.597101 4.642439 4.691639 4.650439 4.663479 4.692265 4.668145 4.611621 4.592085
4.631155 4.641346 4.720253 4.735580 4.747355 4.700480 4.668145 4.611178 4.604170
4.610733 4.635067 4.762361 4.739198 4.754765 4.701389 4.676560 4.611041 4.632785
4.636231 4.634199 4.735539 4.699514 4.705533 4.704110 4.681205 4.611062 4.613138
4.625828 4.626117 4.745444 4.676312 4.696913 4.714921 4.696837 4.610448 4.615121
4.604453 4.628584 4.763356 4.668231 4.680669 4.717606 4.702297 4.610337 4.642466
4.604660 4.621503 4.786525 4.704375 4.675732 4.761319 4.691348 4.610251 4.662495

3# kemufei
您好，我的数据是31年的，已经贴上了，麻烦您看下我的问题出在哪里了。