摘要翻译：
裂谷热病毒(RVFV)的地理分布不断扩大，对人类和动物的健康产生了重要影响。裂谷热在中东的出现以及在非洲许多地区的持续存在，对医疗和兽医基础设施以及人类健康都产生了不利影响。此外，全世界应关注RVFV更广泛的感染动态。我们提出了一个新的RVF分区模型和相关的常微分方程来评估疾病在时间和空间上的传播；后者是联系网络的一个函数。该模型基于加权接触网络，其中网络节点代表地理区域，权值代表每组物种区域配对之间的接触水平。在RVF建模中，包含人、动物和矢量在区域间的运动是新的。被感染个体的运动不仅被视为一种可能性，而且也是一种现实，可以纳入模型。我们使用2010年南非裂谷热爆发的数据作为案例研究，对该模型进行了测试、校准和评估；绘制南非三个省内部和之间的流行病传播地图。大量的仿真结果表明，所提出的方法在世界其他地区精确建模RVF扩展过程的潜力。该模型的优点是双重的：该模型不仅可以区分不同省份之间的最大感染人数，而且可以再现多个地点不同的爆发开始时间。最后，在齐次种群的情况下，对繁殖数的精确值进行了数值计算，并解析地导出了繁殖数的上下界。
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英文标题：
《A Network-Based Meta-Population Approach to Model Rift Valley Fever
  Epidemics》
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作者：
Ling Xue, H. Morgan Scott, Lee. Cohnstaedt, Caterina Scoglio
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最新提交年份：
2012
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Biology        数量生物学
二级分类：Other Quantitative Biology        其他定量生物学
分类描述：Work in quantitative biology that does not fit into the other q-bio classifications
不适合其他q-bio分类的定量生物学工作
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英文摘要：
  Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) has been expanding its geographical distribution with important implications for both human and animal health. The emergence of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in the Middle East, and its continuing presence in many areas of Africa, has negatively impacted both medical and veterinary infrastructures and human health. Furthermore, worldwide attention should be directed towards the broader infection dynamics of RVFV. We propose a new compartmentalized model of RVF and the related ordinary differential equations to assess disease spread in both time and space; with the latter driven as a function of contact networks. The model is based on weighted contact networks, where nodes of the networks represent geographical regions and the weights represent the level of contact between regional pairings for each set of species. The inclusion of human, animal, and vector movements among regions is new to RVF modeling. The movement of the infected individuals is not only treated as a possibility, but also an actuality that can be incorporated into the model. We have tested, calibrated, and evaluated the model using data from the recent 2010 RVF outbreak in South Africa as a case study; mapping the epidemic spread within and among three South African provinces. An extensive set of simulation results shows the potential of the proposed approach for accurately modeling the RVF spreading process in additional regions of the world. The benefits of the proposed model are twofold: not only can the model differentiate the maximum number of infected individuals among different provinces, but also it can reproduce the different starting times of the outbreak in multiple locations. Finally, the exact value of the reproduction number is numerically computed and upper and lower bounds for the reproduction number are analytically derived in the case of homogeneous populations.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1012.1684